Why No Snow?

The brief mention of snow from yesterday’s European computer model is no more.  The last two consecutive runs have taken it out.  Not surprising.  As I’ve said the last couple of days, don’t hold your breath.

For now, the search for snow continues…

TOO WARM FOR SNOW

Temperature statistics are pretty amazing through the first six days of December.  To say we are above average is putting it mildly. (Yes, pun intended.)

Take a look at the temperatures compared to normal.  Everyone is above normal to start the month.

CITY	AVG MONTHLY TEMPERATURE	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	54.8°	+15.6°
Carbondale	53.8°	+14.8°
Chicago	46.1°	+14.4°
Indianapolis	50.2°	+14.8°
Kansas City	52.3°	+17.3°
Rapid Ciy, SD	46.5°	+17.3°
St. Louis	56.8°	+18.4°

Where is all the cold air?  Easy answer, it is bottled up north.  Take a look at the numbers for Faribanks, Alaska!

CITY	AVG MONTHLY TEMPERATURE	DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Fairbanks	-29.6°	-27.2°

NEEDING THE RAIN

Much of the Midwest continues to be abnormally dry to drought.  Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor from December 4, 2012.

(Click for a larger version.)

Computer forecast models are advertising a couple chances for rain over the next 15 days.  The first comes this weekend.  Another chance comes later next week/weekend.

Below is a look at a two computer model average rainfall for select cities along with what should “normally” fall for the next six days.  Also, a look at the 15-day rainfall from one computer model, the GFS.

RAINFALL
CITY	6-DAY AVG	6-DAY NORMAL	15-DAY RAINFALL	15-DAY NORMAL
Cape Girardeau	0.75”		2.02”
Indianapolis	0.48”	0.62”	2.61”	1.73”
St. Louis	0.28”	0.56”	2.00”	1.43”

As with the snow chances above, don’t get your hopes up too much for the rain.  Models are performing badly beyond 5-days.