Saturday, May 30, 2009

Warming Up

As I normally do on Saturday before heading into work, I took quick glance at a couple of the computer models to see what might be coming this week. It looks like it could be warm to start the week!

Below is a look at NOAA's Global forecast model. It is from the 7am (12z) run for Cape Girardeau, Missouri. I plotted temperature (red line) and precipitation (green bars).



Notice the warm-up by the model Monday and Tuesday. Not plotted (but I looked), dew points climb to the upper 60's and maybe 70°. That is when we start to get in to "muggly"* weather.

This model is showing rain returning to the area Tuesday evening and lasting through Thursday morning.

*Before you write me, call me, or email me... Yes I do know that "muggly" or "mugglies" isn't a word in the dictionary. It is a word that is made up. It is a combination of muggy and ugly. Hence, when it gets really hot and humid, I call it muggly.

A Few Storms Today

It isn't out of the question that we could see a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center has the above mentioned areas under a "Slight Risk" in their latest Day 1 Outlook. The outlook runs through 7am Sunday.

The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds.

In order for there to be a few stronger/severe thunderstorms, we will need to get rid of some of the cloud cover left over from morning showers. If we can get some sunshine in the area, that will allow the atmosphere to destabilize.

Vacation is over and I'll be heading in to work in a couple of hours.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

For the Indiana Readers

If you live in central Indiana and use Twitter you'll want to pay attention to this.

I helped setup Brian Wilkes, chief meteorologist at WXIN Fox59 and a really good friend, with a Twitter account Wednesday. He is jumping in head first and is going to be sending out weather updates.

Start following @fox59weather (http://www.twitter.com/fox59weather).

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

A Few Storms Possible Today

According to the Storm Prediction Center, there is a "Slight Risk" of severe thunderstorms today in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and Arkansas. Below is the latest Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

The main threat appears to be damaging wind and large hail this afternoon and evening.

Sorry about the lack of posts the last several days. I have been on vacation (still am).

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Off of Work

I am currently off work. Using some vacation time. During this time, I won't be updating the blog, unless I have time.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Holiday Weekend Forecast Update

I thought I'd pass along what the computer models are showing for the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Below are graphics from NOAA's Global Forecast model. When looking at the graphic time runs from right to left. The red lines represent air temperature. The green bars represent accumulated rainfall.

Cape Girardeau, Missouri:


The forecast model is pumping out a total of 0.55" of rain Friday through Monday.


If you are an Indianapolis 500 fan, you might be interested to find out what fans/drivers can expect for Sunday's race. It looks like pop up thunderstorms will be possible during the day. The race is scheduled to begin at 1pm ET.

The forecast model is pumping out 0.27" of rainfall for Sunday. Through the holiday weekend (Friday-Monday), the model is pumping out 0.94" of rain.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Wet Memorial Day Weekend?

If you have outside plans for Memorial Day weekend, you might want to have Plan B in place.

All forecast models are hinting at a tropical system developing over southern Florida Tuesday. The storm will then move out over the Gulf of Mexico and tap in to more moisture. Eventually, the storm will make its way onshore along the Gulf Coast.

It appears that the storm will then move north/northwest later in the week. As it does so, it will throw moisture up towards southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. It looks like rain could start to move in as early as Friday afternoon.



The European forecast agency's forecast model (ECMWF) positions the center of the storm over central Arkansas by Sunday morning. This will put the area in a position to see continued showers and thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In fact, one forecast model pumps out 1.3" of rain for Cape Girardeau, Missouri Saturday and Sunday.

If you have outside plans for the holiday weekend, keep an eye on the forecast over the next couple of days and hope things change.

One Week Until Summer Starts

Ok, not the official start of summer, but my official start to summer. The singing of "Back Home Again in Indiana" by Jim Nabors at the Indianapolis 500.



The pageantry before the race. Cars turning laps at a 2.5 mile oval in 40 seconds and driving at 220mph. Watching the race with 359,999 other fans at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. There is nothing like it.

If you have never been, do yourself a favor and go. I think EVERYONE should attend the Indianapolis 500 at least once in their life.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Using Technology to Bring You Closer

I want to thank those of you that "rode" along with me Wednesday while I was storm chasing across southeast Missouri.

If you missed it, here is a peak at what you missed. This is a live report from Heartland News at 5pm on KFVS12 from Wednesday.

I was impressed with the turn out of viewers in the car. I started streaming live to www.kfvs12.com around 11:30am CT Wednesday. I kept the streaming up on the site through 7:00pm. During that time, we streamed out over 19,000 minutes of video. Pretty amazing I think!

I will be doing more storm chasing as we go through the rest of the spring and the rest of the year. With the new technology we have been working on, we can go live to our website, www.kfvs12.com, and go live to the air while out chasing. Hopefully, we will get you closer to the storms so you can see what they look like from the safety of your living room, office, or basement.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #302

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #302. The watch is in effect until 7am CT Thursday.


Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #299

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #299. The watch is in effect until 4am CT Thursday.



Remember, the watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Storms are expected to move east at 35 mph.

Tonight is a good night to turn on your NOAA weather radio before you go to bed!

Tornado Watch #294

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #294. The watch is in effect until 10pm CT Wednesday.

Storms are expected to move to the east/northeast at 40mph.
I am out chasing today. Currently located east of Dexter, Missouri. You can watch the chase on http://www.kfvs12.com/.

9:30am Weather Update

Just got the word from the boss. I will be chasing. I've quickly get in to work and get the car set up.

I will probably try and head up towards St. Louis initially and then start to work my way back.

9am Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of southeast Missouri and all of southern Illinois to a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather in their Day 1 Outlook. The Day 1 Outlook runs through 7am Thursday.


Here are the probability forecasts.


For Tornadoes:



For Hail:



For Damaging Wind:



I'm still waiting on word from the boss if I am going to be out chasing today or if I will be at the station helping cover storms. I'll throw a blog post up if I go out chasing.

Also, if you are on Twitter, make sure to follow us.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Wednesday Storm Update

Still looks like the threat for severe weather Wednesday/Wednesday night is there.

Here is the latest Day 2 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

The outlook covers 7am Wednesday through 7am Thursday.

Below is the probablistic graphic for the same time period.

I am hoping to go chasing Wednesday. Perhaps heading up towards St. Louis or Springfield, Illinois during the day and then head back towards southern Illinois and southeast Missouri towards the evening. If I do go chasing, you will be able to ride along with me as I will be streaming video live from the car on www.kfvs12.com.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Storms Possible Wednesday

As if we need more storms in the area, it looks like Wednesday good be an active day.

The Storm Prediction Center put up their Day 3 Outlook that includes southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas. The areas mentioned are under the "Slight Risk". There is a large area already highlighted by the SPC for a "Moderate Risk". This is something that doesn't happen to often on a Day 3 Outllook. Immediately, that catches my attention.



The Day 3 Outllook covers the time period from 7am Wednesday through 7am Thursday.

Since SPC is really pushing the severe weather threat, I thought I would include the probabilities forecast that they issue.




Note the blue hatched area. That area means there is a 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of any point.

As of now, I am planning on going out storm chasing Wednesday. You will be able to ride along with me as I will be streaming a camera from the car to the internet.

Stay tuned for more updates over the next couple of days.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #277

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #277 for all of western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and parts of southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. The watch is in effect until 6am CT Saturday.



The main threat appears to be damaging wind and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Storms are expected to move east at 40mph.

2pm Weather Update

Widespread wind damage reported across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. You can find more on KFVS12.com.

I wanted to put a quick post up to show you the radar from 1:19 pm CT.



At 1:25pm, a storm spotter measured winds of 100mph before his sensor broke near Carbondale, Illinois. The spotter estimates the winds at 106mph! That is incredible!

10:15am Weather Update

At 10:15am thunderstorms are just beginning to move in to southeast Missouri. Right now, it appears that damaging wind will be the largest widespread threat. However, large hail and tornadoes can't be ruled out.

The below radar image is from 10:10am CT.



A boundary has been left from the storms that moved through last night. It will be interesting to see what happens with this complex of storms as it encounters the boundary.

Tornado Watch #267

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #267. The watch is in effect until 4pm CT Friday.



A large complex of storms is moving across southwest Missouri and is headed east. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all threats with the storms. The storms are expected to move east at 60mph.

9am Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas to a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather for today.


More Storms Possible Friday Evening

It appears that we could have another round of thunderstorms developing over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas Friday.

Below is the latest Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.



I am curious to see if the on-going (and weakening) storms moving through the area leave a boundary that storms fire along later Friday.

It appears that the main threat will be large hail and damaging wind Friday afternoon/evening. However, we can't rule out the chance of a tornado.

Storms Spitting Golf Balls

Some big thunderstorms are rolling through southern Illinois early this morning. There have been several reports of hail golf ball size or larger.

Take a look at this picture sent to the weather department via Twitter.



If you have reports of severe weather, you can send them to the KFVS weather department @kfvsweather via Twitter. You can also send them to me @johndissauer via Twitter.

If you have pictures and/or video of severe weather, you can submit them to our new cNews tool.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #262

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #262 for parts of Missouri, Illinois, and western Kentucky. The watch is in effect until 6am CT Friday morning. The main threat appears to be large hail and damaging winds.



Reminder: A Watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning.

Storms should be moving slight south of due east at 40 mph.

Tonight is a good night to turn on your NOAA Weather Radio before you go to bed.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

10am Weather Update

What a yucko morning. The good news is that the rain is trying to move out of the area. The trend of decreasing rain will continue through the day.
Heads up for tomorrow. We could see some big thunderstorms develop along a slow moving cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas included in their Day 1 Outlook. (See graphic below.) This covers 7am Thursday through 7am Friday.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #223

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #223. The watch is in effect until 10pm CT Friday night.



The main threat will be damaging wind, large hail, and heavy rain. Storms should move to the east at around 30mph.

3pm Weather Update

The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the area for a possible watch, most likely a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.


According to their discussion, damaging wind and large hail would be the primary threat of any storms in the watch area. (I've been home sick the last two days so I haven't had a chance to look too deeply in to the models. I am going straight from their discussion.)

At 3pm, temperatures are widely spread. It is 55° in Farmington, Missouri and 73° in Carbondale, Illinois. Obviously, we have a cold front set up over the top of the area. Ahead of the front, dew points are in the middle 60's. Behind the front dew points are in the upper 40's to lower 50's.

Time to Build the Ark?

Get ready for some more rain. Models continue to show a weak boundary (front) stalled out over the top of the Heartland. It will take up residence for several days.

Take a look at what last night's NWS global computer model is pumping out for rainfall accumulation.



5.42" of rain for the Cape Girardeau area.

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