Monday, December 3, 2012

On the Hunt for Winter

Where have you been?

That is a two part question.  It could be asked about winter/snow and could also be asked to me in regards to my blog.  Let me answer the second one first.

There hasn’t been much to talk about in the way of weather lately.  Plus, to be honest, it is easier to make quick updates via twitter than it is to write a blog.  So… if you follow me on twitter you’ve probably been getting lots of updates (maybe too much?).

Now about winter and snow… So far neither have shown up.  To start December, the Midwest has been WAY above normal.


DECEMBER
CITY
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
Cape Girardeau
+20.5°
Carbondale
+20.2°
Indianapolis
+18.5°
St. Louis
+24.8°

Temperatures are expected to stay above normal through much of the upcoming week.


Over the last month computer models have been doing a decent job handling weather systems 1-6 days out.  Once you get beyond day 6, all bets are off.  The trend from NOAA’s global forecast model, the GFS, has been to position a big storm 8-10 days out in the Midwest.  So far, it hasn’t verified well.


I don’t know about you, but I am definitely ready for a couple of snow storms.  If you’ve read my blog for any length of time, you can probably tell I enjoy snow storms.  That being the case, let’s take a look at what this morning’s GFS is showing.


(Click image to see larger version.)

Yeah, that big miss of a storm in the Midwest in the above graphic is what it is showing.  Can you guess the time frame?  It is 8-days out.  The image above is specifically for 6am CT Tuesday, December 11.  It brings a decent amount of snow to central and eastern Missouri Tuesday, then takes it northeast through north-central Illinois and north-central Indiana.  It would also bring some MUCH needed rain to the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.  But as I said earlier, this is the time frame the model has been horrendous.  In other words, don’t hold your breath just yet.


But since I’m wanting snow, let’s do a little wish-casting and see how much snow the model could be suggesting.  Before I go any further, this is in no means a forecast and especially MY forecast.  This is just looking at how much moisture the model is suggesting and turning it in to all snow at a very basic ration of 10:1.
 
In the table below you will find the quantitative precipitation forecast (fancy term for how much there liquid there would be if it were all rain) by the computer model by specific city and then the snow produced with a 10 to 1 ratio.


CITY
QPF
SNOW (10:1)
Champaign, Il
0.60”
6”
Columbia, Mo
0.83”
8.3”
Farmington, Mo
0.10”
1”
Indianapolis
0.48”
4.8”
St. Louis
0.77”
7.7”



As you can see, some locations could get some decent snow.  Again, don’t get excited in reality, but it is something you can wish for if you’d like snow.  As I like to say… Stay tuned.

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