Thursday, December 13, 2012

11:30am Weather Update

Finally just getting a look at last night's run of the European weather agency's computer model.  Not looking good if you are wanting snow in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee -- the "Heartland".

The Euro has sped the storm up, following what the GFS trended to yesterday.  Here is a look at 12am CT Monday December 17.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

Note the surface low located over western Kentucky.  It is much further north with the low as compared to earlier runs.  Previously, the model had the low in southern Tennessee/northern Mississippi/northern Alabama.  This wouldn't bring snow to the "Heartland".  If anything, it would just be rain.

The model is hinting at very light snow or snow flurries late Monday through Tuesday.  It wouldn't be out of the question that could produce maybe up to an inch of snow if everything was squeezed out.

The Euro is hinting at perhaps 0.5" to 1" of snow from Kansas City along I-70 towards Terre Haute, Indiana Monday through Tuesday but that is extremely "iffy" at this point.

All along I've said not to get hopes up to high with this "storm" until we start to see it in the Thursday/Friday runs of the computer models.  The start of the Thursday model runs aren't looking too promising.  The morning data is coming in.  I'll take a look at it later and see if there is anything noteworthy.
I'm adjusting the "Freak-Out-Meter" to 0.25 out of 10.

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