Wednesday, December 19, 2012

7am Weather Update - Severe Weather

This is a quick update concerning the chances for severe weather later today through the early AM hours Thursday for parts of southern/eastern Missouri, extreme southwest Illinois, western Kentucky and Arkansas.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the above mentioned areas for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather through 6am Thursday.

The big question for me is instability. When looking at data last night the thing that stands out to me is lack of instability. There isn't much in the "Heartland".

One thing there will be plenty of... Wind. The storm has strong wind fields from a thousand feet all the way to 30,000 feet.

If thunderstorms that fire across southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas can hold together while crossing the state, the storms could bring some of the strong winds to the surface.

I think strong straight line winds will be the main threat from a thin line of storms. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

The storms will likely move in to the "Heartland" later tonight and through the overnight. Because of that, make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on so you can be alerted to any warnings that are issued.

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