Thursday, December 13, 2012

They've Done a U-Ey

The morning computer model data is in and just as I suspected the models have done an "about face" concerning next weeks possible early-week storm.

For the last two weeks I've been saying that the models have been handling the forecast for the first six days fairly well but anything beyond seven days has been downright awful.  That being the case I knew not to get too excited about a storm for December 17-18 too soon because it had been showing up beyond 8-days in the computer models.  That is why I said I would be curious to see if the storm continued to show up in the model runs Thursday (today) and Friday.  Today is Thursday and lets see what the models are showing.

First, NOAA's global forecast model.  The GFS.  The chart below is for 6am CT Monday.

(Click image to see larger version.)

See the storm?  Yeah, me neither.  Where's the surface low the model had been hinting at?  Ummm... It's not there.  It does bring down some cooler air Tuesday for eastern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana, but no snow.  waa waa waa

Same thing with this morning's European forecast agency's computer model, the Euro.  Here is the mode's view at 6pm CT Sunday.

 (Click image to see larger version.)

A couple things to note.  The Euro has sped the system up another 24 hours.  It shows a surface low developing along the Arkansas/Missouri border and then quickly moving northeast along the Ohio River.  This would bring only rain to the "Heartland".  Cold air is well behind the low so there is little chance of snow with the low.

The model suggests that the cold air dive down through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas and will stick around Monday through Tuesday.

This reminds me of an awesome Peanuts' cartoon I saw a couple weeks ago.  I'm a big Snoopy and Woodstock fan.

(Click to see larger version.)

My "Freak-Out-Meter" is back to 0 out of 10.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If it could just as quickly disappear, makes you wonder if it will be back? Saw something showing that even 4-5 days out models have been struggling.