Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Another Night of Random Thoughts

For some we are less than 24 hours until the start of the Post-Christmas Snow Storm.  Just like the last couple of nights, all kinds of random thoughts are dancing through my head.  Un-lucky for you, you get to read some of them.
  1. First and foremost, Merry Christmas to everyone!
  2. Is anyone else ready to just get this storm started?  I am tired of the talk. Its time to party.
  3. Do I really need to look at so much data?  This happens EVERY winter storm.  Eventually it becomes information overload for me.
  4. I am still concerned about warmer air getting in to a layer of the atmosphere which would bring sleet and/or rain.  Sleet and rain would drastically cut down snow numbers.
  5. Just as the computer models were starting to come in line did the GFS really need to do that tonight?!?  I am sure it has me and many other meteorologists going "Hmm...." tonight.
  6. The "just a bit outside" pitch that the GFS threw tonight will cause many meteorologists to stay up a while longer tonight to see what the relatively consistent ECMWF suggests on the 0z run.
  7. Someone, somewhere is going to get a lot of snow.
  8. I've said the previous thought many times the last couple of days.
  9. I wish there were some BUFKIT data locations in southern Illinois.
  10. There will be a sharp cut-off to the snow on the north/northwest side of the storm.
  11. Not feeling overly confident in producing a hyper-local/specific snow forecast with this storm.  There are sooooo many variables going on with this storm.  PLUS, I'm trying to forecast for three areas (St. Louis, the "Heartland" and central/southern Indiana.  Not sure I will have one with this storm.
  12. I think I just heard sleigh bells out the window.
This storm is still a very fluid forecast (pun intended).  Here is my latest snow matrix which now includes the evening run (0z) of the GFS, NAM and RPM.  You will quickly notice that numbers have dropped for many locations.
CITY
0z RPM
21z RPM
12z GFS
0z NAM
0z GFS
Cape Girardeau
0.0”
8.5”
11.7”
8.6”
3,4”
Cairo, IL
1.0”
10.0”


6.2”
Columbus, IN
4.0”
9.3”


3.7”
Bloomington, IN
2.7”
15.3”

13.1”
5.7”
Dyersburg, TN
6.6”
5.8”


7.6”
Indianapolis
2.2”
10.8”
6.6”
8.9”
5.7”
Lafayette, IN
0.1”
4.5”
4.5”
2.1”
1.1”
Marion, IL
0.0”
10.3”


4.5”
Muncie, IN
3.0”
11.5”
5.9”
8.2”
6.4”
Paducah, KY
4.0”
5.9”
0.6”
11.2”
7.2”
Poplar Bluff, Mo
0.0”
9.9”
11.0”
8.8”
2.8”
St. Louis
0.0”
0.1”
0.8”
0.0”
0.0”
Union City, TN
4.8”
4.9”




What to make of the drop in numbers?  Honestly, I am not sure at this point.  The evening computer models have finally been able to sample the entire storm with upper-air data.  Is this a major shift in the storm?  Time will tell.  As I said, we are less than 24 hours from the start of the storm and things can still shift/change.

Bottom line for tonight/this morning... If you have plans to travel Tuesday night/Wednesday, you should check the latest forecast to see what conditions may be like and plan accordingly.

Freak-Out-Meter:
  • Southeast Missouri: 6
  • Southern Illinois: 6
  • Western Kentucky: 7
  • Central Indiana: 5
  • Southern Indiana (including Columbus): 6
This will be the last update for the night.  I hope to have something new up on the blog by early-mid afternoon time and family permitting.

12:20am Update:  The 0z European computer forecast model is in and I wanted to update the snow matrix.  The Euro is continuing its consistent forecast of a significant snow for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and central/southern Indiana.


CITY
0z RPM
21z RPM
0z Euro
0z NAM
0z GFS
Cape Girardeau
0.0”
8.5”
11.7”
8.6”
3,4”
Cairo, IL
1.0”
10.0”
8.8”

6.2”
Columbus, IN
4.0”
9.3”
12.6”

3.7”
Bloomington, IN
2.7”
15.3”
13.7”
13.1”
5.7”
Dyersburg, TN
6.6”
5.8”
3.0”

7.6”
Indianapolis
2.2”
10.8”
10.8”
8.9”
5.7”
Lafayette, IN
0.1”
4.5”
4.8”
2.1”
1.1”
Marion, IL
0.0”
10.3”
11.7”

4.5”
Muncie, IN
3.0”
11.5”
11.4”
8.2”
6.4”
Paducah, KY
4.0”
5.9”
9.4”
11.2”
7.2”
Poplar Bluff, Mo
0.0”
9.9”
6.0”
8.8”
2.8”
St. Louis
0.0”
0.1”
0.8”
0.0”
0.0”
Union City, TN
4.8”
4.9”
3.0”




2 comments:

Merry Christmas - here is to a safe and calm 2013

John, you are a stud. Your forecasting ability is top-notch

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