Saturday, May 30, 2020

SpaceX Crew Dragon second try at launching

SpaceX and NASA are going to give another try of launching two astronauts in to space this afternoon.  The launch is scheduled for 3:22pm EDT.

Similar to Wednesday I think this launch will probably not happen due to weather concerns.

As you can see in the above image, this high-resolution computer model suggests scattered showers and thunderstorms around Florida.  Looking at current radar, the storms have already developed, especially along the east coast of Florida.  If I were to put a number on it, I'd say there is a 30% chance of the launch happening.


Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Weather could play an impact in SpaceX Crew Dragon launch

Latest high-resolution data suggests there may be a window between 4pm-5pm for SpaceX's Demo-2 launch today. The launch is scheduled for 4:33pm EDT.

I think one of the main concerns will be convective development in the area.  That would include rain, turbulence, and lightning.  I don't know the meteorological minimums for the launch so it is hard to say with more confidence.

This launch is an important step for the United States space program.  It has been nearly 9 years since the United States launched a person in to space.  It was July 8, 2011, the final flight of NASA's Space Shuttle.

Another aspect to this being a big step is this will be the first time a person will go in to space on a commercial spacecraft.  Until now humans have only gone to space on the back of government space programs.


Additional coverage from various organizations:

Saturday, May 23, 2020

A few severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening

There is a chance a few thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, especially in northern Illinois.

I do not expect widespread severe weather but a few storms will have the capability of producing large hail.  Also, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in northern Illinois.

While weather is not necessarily top of mind during the holiday weekend, keep an eye on the weather if you're going to be out later today.

Friday, May 22, 2020

Sweating weather is coming

Temperatures start a warming trend today and continue through Memorial Day Weekend.  We are going to go from the 50°s earlier this week to the mid-80°s Sunday.

As temperatures increase through the weekend, so do the dew points.  Right now it looks like the dew point temperature will climbs to the upper 60°s as early as Sunday and then stick around at that level through most of next week.  (A couple computer models even suggest the dew point could climb in to the low 70°s.)  That means our first taste of "muggly" weather is just a few days away.

What is "muggly" weather?  It is a term I have been using since the late 1990's.  I use it to describe what it feels like when it feels very oppressive.

Muggy + Ugly = Muggly

Anything above 60° feels uncomfortable.  Anything in the upper 60°s and 70°s becomes "muggly".

What do you think?  Are you ready for summer heat/humidity or are you fine with it staying cooler?

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

7-day outlook going in to Memorial Day Weekend

The latest outlook for central Indiana keeps the clouds and cooler temperatures around for at least another day.  BIG changes for the weekend!  Warmer temperatures & higher humidity.  Even had to include a heat index for Sunday/Monday.

Along with the warmer temperatures and humidity will be a daily chance for a shower/thunderstorm.  However, it will not be all day rain this weekend.

Real ID requirement extended

The Department of Homeland Security announced today that they are extending the Real ID requirement due to circumstances related to COVID-19.  The date is now October 1, 2021.

This is important for travelers as TSA will not be able to use your non-Real ID drivers license as a form of ID to pass through security at airports.

If you aren't familiar with Real ID, it is a new secure drivers license DHS is requiring states to implement.  In most states, it requires additional documentation when applying for a new drivers license or a renewal.  More about Real ID from DHS.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

Flash Flood Watch issued through Tuesday

Heavy rains are projected to impact central Indiana through early week.

The Weather Prediction Center - handles snow and rainfall forecasts for NOAA - has included portions of Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and Kentucky in a "moderate" risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday.

A 26-computer model average suggests the following rainfall amounts through 2pm EDT Tuesday.

Columbus, IN: 1.84"
Indianapolis, IN: 1.91"
Richmond, IN: 2.37"

To put the rainfall amounts in perspective... For Indianapolis, the amount forecast is 374% above the normal rainfall for the three day period (0.51").

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch that is in effect until 2pm EDT Tuesday for portions of central Indiana.

Elevated tornado threat Sunday

We will need to keep an eye on thunderstorms later today/this evening. Computer models suggest a line of t'storms entering Indiana around sunset.
HRRR computer model projection of radar imagery at 8pm EDT Sunday.
NAM computer model projection of radar imagery at 8pm EDT Sunday.
The latest data from the Storm Prediction Center suggests the atmospheric environment will be supportive of up to a 5% tornado probability in highlighted area from 3pm-9pm EDT Sunday.

While the threat is low, it is not zero.  Make sure you have a way to be alerted if/when severe weather alerts are issued from the National Weather Service.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Windiest in over seven decades

Wow it has been windy lately!  That was the case Sunday, May 10 in central Indiana.  Indianapolis alone had 13 consecutive hours with wind gusts 26+ mph.

  • 11pm: 26 mph
  • 10pm: 40 mph
  • 9pm: 35 mph
  • 8pm: 33 mph
  • 7pm: 32 mph
  • 6pm: 39 mph
  • 5pm: 32 mph
  • 4pm: 39 mph
  • 3pm: 40 mph
  • 2pm: 39 mph
  • 1pm: 33 mph
  • 12pm: 30 mph
  • 11am: 28 mph

Historically speaking it was the windiest (26+ mph gusts) May 10 since records started in 1942 according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.


  1. 13 - 2020
  2. 8 - 1990
  3. 3 - 1995, 1990, 2017

Friday, May 1, 2020

The More You Kmow: The weekend opens dry

There are great mowing conditions this evening around central Indiana.  Temperatures will be in the low 60°s with sunshine.  Sunset is at 8:40 p.m. in Indianapolis.

  • Much of Saturday will be dry and warm.  Temperatures should top out around 80°.  There will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms by evening along a weak front that looks to lay over north-central Indiana.  Areal coverage of rain will be relatively small, so much of central Indiana should remain dry for the evening.
  • Sunday morning has rain which may linger in to afternoon.
  • Monday will be dry with high pressure moving in overhead.
  • As has been the case for the last couple weeks computer models suggest rain returns Day 4 - in this case Tuesday.  And has also been the case computer models are in much disagreement as to timing.  Right now I'm going to keep Tuesday morning, midday, and evening as "yellow".