Thursday, December 5, 2013

Changing to Snow; Thursday Evening Update

There is still sleet and freezing rain falling across parts of the Midwest but much of the sleet is now changing over to snow.  Reports of 3" to 4" of snow already coming in across parts of the leadbelt of southeast Missouri. (Just now a report of 4.5" of snow in St. Francois County, Missouri.)  In some situations the snow has changed over sooner than forecast projected.

Some of the new evening computer model data is coming in.  Here are a couple views of what the computer models are projecting for snowfall totals through the time on the graphic.  You will notice a discrepancy between the models.  (Welcome to the world of a meteorologist.)

0z RPM Snowfall Accumulation:

(Click image to see larger version.)
(Click image to see larger version.)

0z NAM Snowfall Accumulation:
(Click image to see larger version.)

(Click image to see larger version.)
I'm going to keep the forecast relatively unchanged (a few minor tweaks).

SNOW FORECAST
Snow accumulation through Friday evening.

ILLINOIS:
  • Marion: 8"-12"
INDIANA:
  • Bloomington: 7"-12"
  • Columbus: 7"-12"
  • Indianapolis: 5"-7"
KENTUCKY:
  • Paducah: 2"-4"
MISSOURI:
  • Cape Girardeau: 5"-9"
  • Farmington: 8"-13"
  • Perryville: 7"-11"
  • Poplar Bluff: 4"-7"
  • St. Louis: 2"-4"

FREAK-OUT-METER

ILLINOIS:
  • Marion: 7 
INDIANA:
  • Bloomington: 7
  • Columbus: 7
  • Indianapolis: 6
KENTUCKY:
  • Paducah: 8
MISSOURI:
  • Cape Girardeau: 6
  • Farmington: 7
  • New Madrid: 8
  • Perryville: 7
  • Poplar Bluff: 6
  • St. Louis: 4

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