Monday, April 25, 2011

9:30am Weather Update 4/25

A lot going on today and I'm operating on 4 hours of sleep so this will be quick.

The SPC has taken the KFVS viewing are out of the "Moderate Risk" for severe weather later today. The entire area remains in a "Slight Risk" through 7am Tuesday.

Regardless, we are still anticipating strong to severe storms to develop by late afternoon/evening.

Periods of heavy rain will also be possible as we go through the day.

If you live in low lying areas prone to flooding, start thinning about where you go if the water starts to rise. Evacuations are already happening across the area and I have a feeling we'll see more evacuations happening over the days to come.

Also, if you live near the Mississippi River and Ohio River and occasionally have to deal with rising waters, PLEASE pay attention to river forecasts. We are likely to have significant to historic river flooding along the two rivers by the end of the week and lasting through the beginning of May.

- Posted from my iPhone

Severe Storms Later Today 4/25

You should be getting used to the drill by now. Once again there is a decent chance for severe thunderstorms across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas (the KFVS viewing area) Monday afternoon and night.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" and parts of southeast Missouri and Arkansas in a "Moderate Risk" in thei latest Day 1 Outlook. The outlook is valid through 7am Tuesday.

I have a feeling we will see a potent line of thunderstorms develop over western Arkansas and southwest Missouri by mid to late afternoon. This line will move eastward and move in to the KFVS viewing area by evening.

The main threat from the storms will be large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.

- Posted from my iPhone

Sunday, April 24, 2011

NWS News Conference 4/24

The National Weather Service in Paducah, Kentucky held a news conference earlier this evening concerning the flooding currently taking place, the possibility of more severe weather and the upcoming historic river flooding. You can listen to the news conference below.

Severe Weather Potential 4/24

The Storm Prediction Center has issues a Tornado Watch that is in effect until 7:00pm CT Sunday evening.

The watch is for northern and northeast Arkansas. The watch does not include any counties in southeast Missouri, for now.

There is the potential for severe weather all across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. The above mentioned area is included in a "Slight Risk" area by the SPC through 7am Monday.

Monday night has my interest peaked. A potential severe weather outbreak looks possible over southeast Missouri and Arkansas.

The SPC already has parts of the KFVS viewing area included in a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather 7am Monday - 7am Tuesday. The rest of the viewing area is included in a "Slight Risk". Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds (along with heavy rain) is all possible Monday night.

- Posted from my iPhone

Here We Go Again 4/24

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated there is a 60% chance they will be issuing a Tornado Watch within the next hour or two for parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas. Areas likely included in the watch will be Poplar Bluff, Dexter, Kennett and Doniphan.

- Posted from my iPhone

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Flooding Perspective 4/23

I mentioned yesterday that the hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky said that river levels along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers could exceed the 1995 flood (Cape Girardeau, Missouri) and the 1997 flood (Cairo, Illinois and Paducah, Kentucky).

To put this in perspective I went back and took a look at 1995. The 1995 flood ranks only second behind the historic 1993 flood in Cape Girardeau. In 1995, the water stage reached 47 feet. In 1993, the water stage reached 48.49 feet.

I am not saying that we are going to see flooding like 1993, but it should be watched closely. It is never good when you hear hydrologists using the term "historical" in their conversations.

Not Over Yet 4/23

A busy night in the weather department last night. I am sure by now you have also heard of the significant damage to the west and northwest side of St. Louis.

We are not out of the woods yet. A front has draped across the area and is not going to move much for the next several days. This is going to allow for an almost daily chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and extremely heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center has parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, northwest Tennessee, western Kentucky and northeast Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" area for severe storms through 7am Sunday.

(Click image to see larger version.)

The main threat today will be large hail and heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps the KFVS viewing area in a "Slight Risk" area for Sunday and again Monday. In other words, don't let your guard down.

I talked about the heavy rain threat on yesterday's post. New data coming out is indicating the heavy rain threat could be worse.

Last night's storms dropped anywhere from 0.25" to over 3" of rain across the region. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has updated their rainfall forecast for the next five days. The forecast covers today through Wednesday.

(Click image to see larger version.)

Unfortunately, they have increased their numbers for the middle Mississippi River Valley and the Ohio River Valley. The maximum amount indicated in their forecast is 10.1" pinpointed over southern Illinois. Generally around the KFVS viewing area the forecast is calling for 6" to 10" of rain. This does not bode well for water levels along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

There could also be periods of flash flooding around the region as the ground continues to saturate. Unfortunately, flooding contributes to more than 100 deaths across the United States every year. For some reason people think they can cross the water and they end up getting swept away. I don't want to see that happen around here. I can't stress this enough. If you see water over roadways, DO NOT CROSS or DRIVE THROUGH IT. "Turn Around. Don't Drown."

Friday, April 22, 2011

Storms = Flooding 4/22

I've been saying for the last week that we are in a prolonged period of active weather for the Midwest and the KFVS viewing area. The usual attention getter is thunderstorms with hail, wind and tornadoes and we've been seeing all of those things. But when you get prolonged periods of storms, heavy rain can often times be a bigger concern.

A front is going to stall out over the area and allow almost daily chances for rain over the next 5-6 days. The Hydrometeorolical Prediction Center (HPC) has put out their new rainfall projection for the next five day.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

The above numbers show what they are expecting for today through Tuesday.

To put it in context, I was on a conference call with the National Weather Service in Paducah today and the service hydrologist said that if the expected rain does happen the flooding would exceed the following levels:
  • It would exceed the 1995 flood in Cape Girardeau, Missouri.
  • It would exceed the 1997 flood in Cairo, Illinois.
  • It would exceed the 1997 flood in Paducah, Kentucky.
Something interesting to note. The hydrologist said this will be the first time in over 20 years that both the Ohio River and the Mississippi River will be flooding at these levels at the same time.

Also a heads up for later today and tonight. The KFVS viewing area is in a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms through 7am Saturday morning. Parts of southeast Missouri are also included in a "Moderate Risk" for severe weather during the same time period. It appears that large hail will be the main threat for most of the area. There is a higher chance of tornadoes in southern Missouri.

Just a reminder... If there is water covering roadways, DO NOT cross them! As the National Weather Service says, "Turn around. Don't drown."

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

12:40pm Weather Update 4/19

9:00am Weather Update 4/19

Not much time this morning as I need to get to work and starting working on the forecast for Heartland News at Noon.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps all of the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas) and much of Illinois, Indiana and northern Arkansas in a MODERATE RISK for severe weather today through 7am Wednesday.

The main threat from storms that develops in to a line later this evening will be damaging wind. Isolated storms could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. The main threat from these storms will be large hail and strong tornadoes.

I'll try to get a video update out after the noon newscast is over.

Monday, April 18, 2011

12:45pm Weather Update 4/18

1:45am Weather Update 4/18

A quick update concerning our severe weather threat Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has put out their new Day 2 Outlook. The outlook is their forecast for where severe weather could happen 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday.

As expected, the SPC has put much of the Midwest in a "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. This includes all of the KFVS viewing area along with central and southern Indiana.

All types of severe weather are possible with storms Tuesday/Wednesday (i.e. large hail, damaging winds, strong tornadoes).

I'll have more on this later today (Monday) as new data becomes available. Definitely stay tuned to the blog for future updates along with local media and your local National Weather Service offices for the latest forecast.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

Friday, April 15, 2011

Tornado Watch #142

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Tornado Watch #142. The watch is in effect until 9pm Friday night.

Hail up to 2 inches in diameter and tornadoes will be possible with storms that fire up this afternoon. Storm motion is expected to be to the north/northeast at around 40 mph.

9:50am Weather Update 4/15

I've been looking over the data this morning... IF I were to go storm chasing locally (in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois or western Kentucky) my initial target be somewhere between Charleston, Mo and New Madrid, Mo. I like this area's atmospheric environment for storm development during the late morning/early afternoon.

I think storms will initiate in southeast Missouri and move in to western Kentucky and southern Illinois as maturing thunderstorms.

It is a tough call for a specific location due to having to deal with the Mississippi River. Storms will eventually cross over the river in to western Kentucky and those storms may be the better chasing storms. That is why I am hedging up towards the Charleston area because it gives me access to east, west and south.

8:30am Weather Update 4/15

As expected rain has arrived and rain is beginning to exit the area. Along with the rain moving out, a couple lines of clearing are starting to appear on visible satellite imagery.

(Click the image to see larger version.)

Note the rain over southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Also note the dark areas on the satellite image. That is the area of clearing.

As I have been mentioning the last couple of days, the severe weather potential for the second round of thunderstorms is highly dependent on some clearing and heating. If the sunshine comes through and stays around for a couple of hours things will begin to warm up and destabilize in the atmosphere. This will lead to strong to severe storms in the afternoon.

The bullseye appears to be on southern Illinois and western Kentucky with the main threat being very large hail and tornadoes. However, just because I didn't mentioned southeast Missouri doesn't mean that area is excluded from the chance. I think storms will initiate over southeast Missouri and then move in to southern Illinois and western Kentucky as maturing thunderstorms.

Keep your NOAA weather radios turned on today and keep an eye to the sky. It may get active this afternoon.

1:00am Weather Update 4/15

Just looking over new data coming in tonight concerning Friday's storm potential. My thinking has not really changed much since yesterday's post.

Two rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.

First round comes early Friday morning from storms originating in Oklahoma/Kansas Thursday afternoon. The main threat with this round will be damaging wind and heavy rain.

The second round will come during the afternoon. The main threat will be large hail and tornadoes. The second round is contingent on us seeing some sunshine by late morning/early afternoon. If we stay cloudy from the mornings rain, the severe weather threat will be drastically reduced.

I just checked the latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center and their forecast concurs with mine. They are indicating the potential for some very large hail. A 10% or greater probability of 2" diameter hail or larger during the afternoon. They also indicate a 10% or greater probability of EF2-EF5 tornadoes.

I am still debating between going out storm chasing tomorrow, staying home and streaming weather coverage online or going in to work at the station. The large hail potential has me a little concerned taking a car in to storms. It will probably be a last minute decision as to what I do.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Friday Storm Update 4/14

It is still looking like we could see some severe weather around southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and southwestern Indiana tomorrow (Friday).

The Storm Prediction Center includes the mentioned area in a "Slight Risk" area in their latest Day 2 Outlook.

A strong storm system will be moving east out of the Plains tonight. Big storms are expected to fire up over Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas later today. These storms will move east overnight and eventually make their way in to the the earlier mentioned area early Friday AM. Some of these storms could be strong at times with heavy rain and wind the main threat.

Once the initial first wave of showers and thunderstorms pass Friday morning we could get some sunshine breaking out by early afternoon. This is going to aid destabilization in the atmosphere. That combined with the stacked low moving through Missouri could fire up more thunderstorms by late afternoon. The main threat for the second "window" will be large hail and tornadoes.

A fly in the ointment for the second round of storms Friday will be cloud cover. It will greatly depend on how long the rain/clouds stick around from the morning thunderstorms.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Severe Storms Possible Monday 4/3

Reminder: As storms fire up this evening there will be a lot of storm chasers chasing. You can click on the "Track Storm Chasers" link above to see where some of them are located and you can watch some of their live video streams from the safety of your computer.