Thursday, December 6, 2012

330 Days Since...

Snow for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky next week?  It may be possible.

Including today, it has been 330 days (January 12, 2012) since the last measurable snow in most of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky (the “Heartland”) and there is a chance that streak could end Tuesday.

I mentioned earlier this week that the computer models were hinting at a measurable snow coming for parts of the Midwest next week.  I also mentioned that the likelihood wasn’t great as the computer models had been “out to lunch” in the long range.  The prospects of the measurable snow for St. Louis, Champaign, Illinois and Indianapolis are pretty much non-existent at this point.

The morning run of the European Agency’s computer model follows suit taking away snow chances for the above mentioned locations.  However, the model is also advertising an area of low pressure passing to the south of western Kentucky could have enough moisture north of the low and enough cold air coming in from the north to create snow for parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and extreme southern Illinois.

Moisture doesn’t appear to be too great at this point.  But just eyeballing what the model is suggesting, perhaps 1”-2”.

At this point, I wouldn’t get too excited.  This isn’t the forecast, it’s just a small blip.  Doesn’t even register a 1 on my “Freak Out Meter”.


TORNADOES IN THE WINTER:
Yes, they are possible and happen more often than you think in the “Heartland”.  The National Weather Service in Paducah has put together a nice page on their website highlighting tornado statistics and documenting how they can and do occur in the winter and also late at night.

Take a look at the top 4 times of day that tornadoes occur.

Tornadoes: Time of Day (1996-2011)
TIME
PERCENTAGE OF TORNADOES
6pm – 9pm
30%
3pm – 6pm
27%
9pm – Midnight
15%
Midnight – 3am
8%

It is just a good reminder that while we are in search for snow severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are still possible.

This in mind, do you know what makes a great Christmas gift?  A NOAA Weather Radio.  If you know someone that would never go out and buy one for themself, a radio is a perfect.  If turned on, it is a good way to be alerted to severe weather watches and warnings overnight while sleeping.

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