Wednesday, December 19, 2012

1:30pm Weather Update - Updated Numbers

Trying to keep everyone updated as far as what the weather data is showing.  I had been waiting for the morning run of the European forecast model to come in.  It is now in and I've added it to the snow matrix.  You can now see a snowfall number derived from a 5-computer model average (some cases 3 or 4-computer model average).

First, I wanted to show you a larger picture snowfall map.  This is a projection from NOAA's global forecast model, the GFS.  This is valid from now through 6am CT Saturday.

 (Click the image to see larger version.)

CITY
12z NAM
12z GFS
12z RPM
12z EURO
AVG
Cedar Rapids, IA
8.2”
10.3”

12.0”
10.2”
Columbus, IN


0.3”
1.1”
0.7”
Bloomington, IN
2.2”

1.3”
1.4”
1.7”
Indianapolis
1.4”
0.6”
0.7”
2.3”
1.3”
Lafayette, IN
1.4”
0.9”
0.2”
2.5”
1.2”
Moline, IL
3.8”
2.3”

3.4”
3.2”
Muncie, IN
1.7”
1.5”
0.8”
3.0”
1.6”
St. Louis
0.0”
0.1”
0.1”
1.0”
0.2”

1:45pm Update: One thing I am still a little leery of with the numbers listed above for central Indiana and St. Louis, I still think we could see a dry slot develop behind the cold front.  The intrusion of dry air would diminish snow amounts as it would "soak up" the moisture.

Measuring snow will also be difficult as winds are expected to be 30-40 mph with gusts to 50mph throughout the day Thursday.

1 comments:

snow snow snow is my request...Perryville

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