Sunday, December 23, 2012

Post-Christmas Storm Snow Matrix

Morning data from the computer models is in and for the most part, everything is still pointing to the possibility of a significant snow storm that could stretch from Oklahoma/Arkansas to the northeast U.S.  The areas I am concerned about is southeast/eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southern/central Indiana.


I have been, and still am, hesitant to start throwing out numbers from the computer models because there is still much uncertainty with the storm and I know how people see the first numbers are see them as the forecast.  I will likely be putting out a snow forecast Christmas Eve or sometime Christmas day.  It looks like the storm will start to impact the above mentioned areas as early as Tuesday evening (for western areas).

It is still too early virtually to know how much snow is going to fall at any specific point.  We are still 60 hours from the beginning of the event.  That being said, the computer models do provide insight as to what they are currently projecting for locations.  Please understand  that if the surface low tracks north or south by as little as 40 miles, it will have a HUGE impact on snow totals.  And in reality, the models will shift.

Here is a snow matrix for specific locations across Missouri, Kentucky and Indiana.  Because of some of the type of data I am looking at, no specific location information is available for any locations in southern Illinois.  That will change as we get closer to it and more computer models can start to provide projections.

CITY
12z NAM
12z GFS
12z Euro
Cape Girardeau
0.3”
13.4”
4.8”
Bloomington, IN
0.7”
3.9"
6.0”
Dexter, MO
0.4”
14.6”
2.3”
Indianapolis
3.9”
4.6”
6.9"
Lafayette, IN
8.8”
7.4”
4.8”
Muncie, IN
3.2”
5.1”
6.5”
Paducah, KY
0.2”
5.2”
2.5”
St. Louis
13.8”
2.5”
0.0”

At this point, I am discounting the NAM.  It isn't an impossible solution, I'm just not buying in to it yet.  I should also mention that the high-resolution RPM takes the storm much further south which would keep snow away from southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and most of Indiana (except southeast).

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is pointing out areas where they think snows 4" or greater will occur between 6am CT Tuesday through 6am CT Wednesday.
(Click the image to see larger version.)

Bottom line... Someone is going to get a significant amount of snow.  I have already seen a few National Weather Service offices mentioning that this storm setup is similar to Winter Storm 2004.  I am keeping the "Freak-Out-Meter" at 4 (out of 10).

1 comments:

Winter Storm 2004...was that the year we ended up with two feet of snow right before Christmas? I live in far SE Illinois.

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