Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Dec. 7-9 Storm Update

I am looking over the models again this morning to see if there is any hope in our December 7-9 storm. I say "hope" because I wouldn't mind seeing a snowstorm. They are fun for meteorologists!

Models are not in agreement as to what the weather pattern will be like for the above mentioned time frame. The NWS's GFS continues to show nothing developing for the time period in question. However, the European forecast agency's model and now the Canadian forecast agency's model (both from last night's 0z run) are hinting at a storm developing. Let's take a closer look.

Here is the 192 hour chart from the European model depicting 6pm Tuesday, December 7.

The Euro continues to indicate an area of low pressure down along the Gulf Coast moving east. North of the low precipitation spreads all the way to I-40 in Arkansas and Tennessee. This would bring precipitation south of the KFVS viewing area and keep us dry. However, move the storm north 100-200 miles and we could be talking a different situation.

Here is the 180 hour chart from the Canadian model depicting 6am Tuesday, December 7.

The Canadian model is a little warmer with the storm and has the surface low further north compared to the European model. The surface low on this chart is in a perfect position to bring heavy snow to portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky. However, I have one concern with this scenerio. I don't know how much cold air is already in place when the precipitation hits. This could either be a cold rain, ice, or snow.

So what are your guesses? Will we see anything or no? If we do, what do you think we'll get? Rain, sleet, ice, or snow? Leave your guesses in my comment section.

At this point it is still way too early to get too excited, but it is something to continue to watch. If nothing else, it is fun to do a little "wish-casting". Yes, I want snow. Lots of it! haha

I continue to mention December 7-9 as to give the weather a little room in case things slow down. Everything is pointing at sometime December 7 so maybe going as far as the 9th is a little much.

I am going to be out of pocket the next couple of days so I do not know how many updates I will be able to provide as I will not have the best access to weather data. If I am able to look at anything, I will try to provide updates as much as possible.

Disclaimer: This is not my nor the Heartland StormTeam's forecast. This is just a look at what computer models are showing at a given point in the future. The following information is not mean to be definitive. This is merely for discussion purposes only.

Monday, November 29, 2010

The Promised Update

The new NWS Global Forecast model run is in (6am run). Nothing too exciting to speak of. In fact, the model doesn't show any storm at all moving through the central US around December 7.

Was the last couple of runs of the forecast models just out to lunch? Is today's run not seeing it? We will only know over the coming days as we see if the models keep it out or bring it back. Sometimes it can take 24 hours to see if the models bring it back.

For a look at last night's European forecast agency's computer model projection for December 7 scroll down to the next post.

Last Night's European

I am still intrigued by the storm possibilities for Tuesday, December 7. Here is a quick look at last night's 0z run of the European forecast agency's weather computer model.

The Euro takes the surface low much further south through Texas and along the Gulf Coast. It spreads rain over the top of colder air (aka a running-over event). This could be snow and ice for someone. With this specific run, ice would most likely be south of the KFVS viewing area and we would pick-up a little bit of snow (a couple of inches).

This makes two runs in a row of the Euro taking the storm further south and the KFVS viewing area being on the far northern edge. Could it be on to something?

We are still talking about a storm that a) is 204 hours away from reality and b) hasn't even developed yet so there is great uncertainty.

The morning run of the NWS Global Forecast model is still being processed and isn't out yet. I'll check on it a little later today and will post it's findings later.

Disclaimer: This is not my nor the Heartland StormTeam's forecast. This is just a look at what computer models are showing at a given point in the future. The following information is not mean to be definitive. This is merely for discussion purposes only.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Another View

Getting ready to take off from work tonight and thought I'd check out the new run of the NWS' Global Forecast Model, the GFS to see how our December 7-9 storm is doing. Two words. "Very Interesting!"

Again, before I go any further, here is my disclaimer for the following weather discussion: This is not my nor the Heartland StormTeam's forecast. This is just a look at what computer models are showing at a given point in the future. The following information is not mean to be definitive. This is merely for discussion purposes only.

Here is a look at the chart for 204 hours (6am Tuesday, December 7).

If you don't like snow, what you are looking at isn't good. haha The model develops a surface low over eastern Tennessee. Behind it, a heavy swath of moisture is generated. With the heavy moisture, temperatures are below freezing. This would mean we would start out as cold rain changing over to heavy snow.

Here is the view at 216 hours (6pm Tuesday, December 7).

The surface low pushes off to the east coast bringing with it a pretty good snow to eastern Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and eastern Tennessee.

Just doing a quick extrapolation of how much liquid is available to work with, there could be 0.90" to 0.95" of liquid. Hmmm.... As I said earlier... "very interesting".

This is far from being reality. The computer models will most likely fluctuate several times between now and then and this storm could be nothing. That being said, it has appeared in several runs of the models and seems to be consistently showing up. There is something there, but not sure what that something is just yet.

As always, when it comes to winter storms the track of the storm is everything. 100 miles this way, another 100 miles that way, and we could end up getting squat. We shall see...

I officially start vacation.... ummm... 20 minutes ago, so I will be off weather duties at the station for a little while. Hopefully I'll have time to be able to update the blog a couple times before this storm comes around.

Keeping Eyes On...

We're getting to the time of year where we can look out in the distance in the weather computer models and see if there are any "interesting" storms taking shape.

I'm a big fan of winter storms. Snow, ice, and thunderstorms. I like watching them all in the winter. This is one of the reasons I like looking out over the next 240-386 hours.

The European forecast agency's computer model has picked up on a "wrinkle". It is out around the December 7 through December 9 time frame.

Before I go any further, I need a disclaimer. This is not my nor the Heartland StormTeam's forecast. This is just a look at what computer models are showing at a given point in the future. The following information should not definitive. This is merely for discussion purposes only.

First, let's take a look at what the model was showing from yesterday morning's 12z run.

The above map is depicting mean sea level pressure, precipitation, and 500mb thicknesses for 6am Tuesday, December 7.

It develops a surface low over southern Texas with an overrunning rain event. Cold air is coming in from north and interacting with the rain. What do you get? Snow. This would be a pretty good snow storm for eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and the Texas panhandle.

I think there could also be some ice with this storm, perhaps over Oklahoma.

Now let's take a look at what last night's run of the model (0z).

This is looking at the same time frame, 6am Tuesday, December 7. This run of the model still has some of the same looks, but there are the trends are slightly different.

The surface low is a bit further south. The cold air is much further south (around 150 miles).
This would still be a snow storm for the Texas panhandle, but also includes Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

The big question is how does this storm translate beyond this time frame? Does it move east? Does it move southeast? Does it move northeast?

If it moves east or northeast, things could get really interesting around the KFVS viewing area (southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas). What do I mean by "interesting"? Snow, sleet, ice, and rain? All of the above.

What would you like to see out of this storm?

This is still a long way out and the storm hasn't even developed. There is a chance that this could be nothing at all. The storm could never develop. But there is also a chance this could be something. We'll just have to wait and see how things develop in real life versus the virtual life of computer models.

Stay tuned...

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Looking Ahead at Busy Week

Here is a look at what to expect over the next couple days. I know this quickly becomes a busy week for everyone with the holidays and travel.

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. The weather has been quiet and I've been having some problems with the video recording software. (There has been some lip sync issues.) Hopefully it isn't too bad.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Looking Ahead

It still looks like we could have rain move through the KFVS viewing area Saturday (tomorrow), however don't expect a lot of rain. Models are hinting at under 0.25" for the area. To be honest, I would not be at all surprised if we see the rain moving towards the area and then we see it split north and south. However, I do think some will see rain in the area, just not sure if everyone will see it.

I am doing my part to help our chances for rain. I went out and got my car washed this morning. haha

It still appears that we will see cooler air move in for early next week. I think some places will see highs only in the upper 40's by Tuesday. There had been talk of rain moving through Monday and Tuesday. The models are trending further south with the rain on each model run. As of today, rain isn't in the forecast.

If you like the warm weather we've had the last couple of days you will like what I see coming down the road. Models are hinting at another shot of warmer air moving in to the central United States around November 20/21.