Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Understanding the "Freak-Out-Meter"

Since my beginning of professionally forecasting weather, I’ve noticed how much people “freak out” over a simple four letter word that starts with the letter “s” - snow.  I’ve tried to find other ways to describe the word to try to keep people calm to no avail.

Every time snow would be in the forecast there would be mass runs on bread, milk and eggs at grocery stores.  Everyone knows it happens.  There are always jokes about the local weatherman having side deals with grocery store to bring in more business.  While it would be nice to make an extra buck, I’ve never had any such deal.

In my opinion, no one should freak out over storms, but I know people will.  So, in 2007 I had enough of seeing it happen.  I wanted to come up with a way to convey how big of a deal the storm would be and suggest how much they “freak out”.  I also wanted to have fun with it because for many - myself included - winter storms are “fun”.  That is when I came up with the idea of the “Freak-Out-Meter”.

The “Freak-Out-Meter” is a number given to a location in regards to how big of deal a storm is going to be.  The scale runs from 0 to 10.  0 being the lowest (non-existent).  10 being the biggest of all big storms.

The “Freak-Out-Meter” is not a number indicating how much snow, ice or rain is going to fall.  It actually has nothing to do with the amount of anything.  It is more about how much the storm will impact the locale.

Normally, the further out a weather event will happen, the lower the number because there is still much variance in what will ultimately happen.  As we get closer to the event, the number gets more tuned - sometimes going higher, sometimes going lower.

This year I have decided to make a few additions to the “Freak-Out-Meter”.  Along with the assigned number, which is the most important part of the meter, I’ve added some descriptions.  The descriptions are meant tongue-in-cheek to have some fun with the storm.
Click image to see larger version.
Let me know what you think in the comment section of the blog.  I enjoy hearing feedback about the “Freak-Out-Meter”.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Amazing data from the Europeans

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast's computer models are world-renowned for their forecasting ability.  You likely hear it mentioned in current-day weather forecasts from meteorologists.  It gained a lot of attention during the days leading up to "Super Storm" Sandy.  Personally, I've been using the European computer model (ECMWF) since I first started to learn to forecast in 1997.  Since that time, it is the model I most lean on when putting together my forecasts.

It is pretty amazing the resources the European forecast office puts towards the computer model.  It is miles and miles ahead of what the United States puts towards its global forecast model, the GFS.
  • There are 21 member states and 13 co-operating states involved in the project.
  • The office has an annual budget of approximately $88-million.
  • Their system collects 40-million observations a day by more than 50 instruments.
  • Their medium-range computer model runs twice a day (morning and evening).
    • For the medium-range computer model, over 3-million points of data are ingested in to the computer model before it begins running calculations.
    • The supercomputers used operate with a sustained speed of 200 trillion floating point operations per second.
Here's a closer look at the data ingested in to just one computer model run.  Specifically, this is from the 0z June 3 run.
  • 69,627 surface observations
  • 9,296 buoy observations
  • 136,603 aircraft observations
  • 234,543 Infrared atmospheric motion vectors
  • 259,629 Water Vapor atmospheric motion vectors
  • 110,560 Visible atmospheric motion vectors
  • 1,314 Polar Infrared atmospheric motion vectors - Northern Hemisphere
  • 3,205 Polar Infrared atmospheric motion vectors - Southern Hemisphere
  • 348 Polar Water Vapor atmospheric motion vectors - Northern Hemisphere
  • 7,791 Polar Water Vapor atmospheric motion vectors - Southern Hemisphere
  • 638 balloon soundings
  • 3,340 Pilot-profiler soundings
  • 37,517 Microwave imager points
  • 700,651 AMSU-A Satellite soundings
  • 309,580 AMSU-B MHS Satellite soundings
  • 534,853 HIRS Satellite soundings
  • 511,896 SCAT Scatterometer points
  • 64,450 IASI Temp/Humidity profiles
  • 29,164 OZONE points
  • 424,882 GRAD Clear Sky Radiance points
  • 71,307 AIRS Atmospheric IR Sounding points
  • 80,789 GPSRO Precipitable water soundings
  • 57,023 Ground-based precipitable water soundings
TOTAL = 3,658,997 pieces of data

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Early look at what could come in November

I had some time to look over some loooooong range computer model data and make a few observations of what could come between October 28 - November 26 to central Indiana and the Midwest.

One thing to remember, you should take all of the thoughts with a MAJOR grain of salt. This is only one computer model's view over a long period of time and not reality. You should not get too hung up on details. Things can and likely will change.
  • We appear to be moving in to a pattern of upper-level storms coming off the Pacific Ocean and setting up show in the southwest United States before eventually moving east
    • Data suggests 5 of these upper-level storms affecting the Midwest November 2, 8, 10, 19 and 22.
  • Temperatures in the Midwest turn warmer November 3-7.
  • We have a period of above normal temperatures in the Central United States November 12-18.
    • Indiana could see above normal temperatures November 14-21.
  • Colder air arrives in Great Lakes (including Indiana) November 23-24.
  • Above normal temperatures in Indiana November 25-26.

Keep in mind, the model is just that. A computer model. The farther out the model looks, the higher the possible error rate. The key to look at this kind of data is not to look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Change of Scenery

This post is LONG overdue.  In case you haven't already heard, I have moved to Indiana and I now working as a meteorologist for CBS4 (WTTV-TV) in Indianapolis, Indiana.  The move happened December 2014.

It is a great opportunity for me.  It is working for a great company.  It brings me back to the television station and the chief meteorologist where I interned (1997).  It brings me home.  I'm originally from central Indiana and have wanted to move back from the time I moved away.

You can normally find me on the CBS4 weekend evening news at 6pm and 11pm.  I also fill in a lot during the weekday evening news on CBS4 and also during the weekend evening on our sister-station FOX59.

Time permitting, I will continue to post information for Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky - especially for winter storm.  You can also get more timely updates from my via Twitter by following @johndissauer.  (You don't have to have a Twitter account to see the information, you can go to and read my tweets.)

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Snow for Sunday and Monday

Data starting to come in from morning runs. Things are pointing to higher numbers for snow in southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. 

Here's a look at what some of this morning's data suggests for snow totals through Monday night:
  • 7"-11" for Poplar Bluff
  • 8"-10" for Carbondale
  • 9"-14" for Paducah
  • 9"-14 for Cape Girardeau
  • 5"-8" for Farmington
  • 5"-8" for Mt. Vernon
  • 6"-8" for St. Louis
Things will become more clear over next couple hours as more data comes in.

  • Cape Girardeau: 7
  • Farmington: 6
  • Poplar Bluff: 6
  • Paducah: 7
  • Carbondale: 6
  • Mt. Vernon: 5
  • St. Louis: 5

Monday, November 17, 2014

Warm Water Equals Cold Air

Take a look at the sea surface temperature anomalies off the coast of Alaksa.  3°-4° above normal.  WOW!  Even off the coast of Siberia the water temperature is running 3°-6° above normal.

Why care about that?  The warmer water helps to keep large storms fueled as they move across the northern Pacific which in turn can cause an upper-level blocking pattern.  When the blocking pattern takes hold, cold air from northern Canada and the Arctic rush down the east side of the Rocky Mountains and through the central Plains helping keep the lower 48 in the freezer.

If you like reading about some of the tidbits mentioned above, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer).  I tweet out a lot of stats, weather tidbits and thoughts on the forecast.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Arctic Chill

Tis' the season.  Cold air is building over the Arctic and it appears much of the lower 48 will tap in to it next week.

As of 5pm EST, the temperature in Alert, Canada is -23° with a wind chill in the -30°s.  The reason I mention the temperature in far northern Canada... That's where the source of cold air lies.

Long range computer models continue to advertise the cold air will filter in to the United States next week behind a strong arctic cold front.  A 1040-1044mb high is projected to fill in behind the front.  This allow cold air from northern Canada to slide down through the country.

Here's a look at Tuesday morning's temperature projection and upper-level winds from this morning's run of the European Computer Model.
12z ECMWF Temperature Projection
(Click on image to see larger version.)
Yeah, the purple colors are representative of cooooold air.  The cold air begins to infiltrate the United States late Sunday night.  It will sink south and southeast over the following days.

There are signs that the cold air will be around for a long period of time.  Temperatures could remain below freezing in many locations of the United States for six to nine days.

Here is a look at surface temperature projections from both the European forecast agency's computer model and NOAA's long range Global Forecast model.
12z ECMWF Temperature Projection - Shown in Celsius.
(Click image to see larger version.)
12z GFS Temperature Projection - Shown in Celsius
(Click image to see larger version.)
There are similar temperature plots for St. Louis and Indianapolis.  Temperatures around and below freezing, especially at the end of next week and in to the following weekend.
Plot of temperature projections for Indianapolis from various computer models.
(Click image to see larger version.)
Plot of temperature projections for St. Louis from various computer models.
(Click image to see larger version.)
With the cold air the question about snow begins to increase.  At this time, not major snow storms appear to be in the cards over the next week.  That isn't to say some snow couldn't fall.  I think there will be a couple of chances for snow in Colorado Springs/Denver and central Indiana.  That is something that will become more visible as we get closer to the middle/end of next week.

In the mean time, use the weekend to find your winter coats, gloves, hats and long underwear.  As always, you can follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) to get the latest on next week's cold air intrusion.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Loooooong Range Outlook: May 17-June 15

Latest run of the experimental loooooooong range computer model is in.  I've had a chance to look at the data and make a few observations of what could come between May 17 and June 15.

One thing to remember, you should take all of the thoughts with a MAJOR grain of salt. This is only an experiemental computer model and not reality. You should not get too hung up on details just yet. Things can and likely will change.

Enough with the disclaimer, on to the observations:
  • Warm weather in southern United States May 21-23.
  • Upper-level low develops in western United States May 20.
  • Well above normal temperatures in the northern Plains and south-central Canada May 22-25.
  • Warm-up in southwest United States in through the northern Rockies (Idaho, western Montana) May 27-30.
  • Warm-up in Colorado through the central/northern Plains May 30-June 1.
  • East coast storm develops May 30-June 1.
  • Warm-up in Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Illinois and Oklahoma June 1-2.
  • Warm-up in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina June 1-3.
  • Pacific storm develops and impacts the northwest United States June 2-5.
  • Warm-up in southern United States/central Plains/Missouri June 10-11.
  • Warm-up in desert southwest (California, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico) June 12-15.

Keep in mind, the model is just that. A computer model. The farther out the model looks, the higher the possible error rate. The key to look at this kind of data is not to look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More