- Posted from my iPhone
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
European model tries to bring an upper-level cold core low through southern Missouri, southern Illinois, Kentucky and southern Indiana December 28. That could bring a little snow but don't bust out the shovels just yet.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
All of the models have dried up the atmosphere for December 24. Temperatures will be cold enough in the atmosphere, however with no moisture, we won't get anything to fall. Bottom line, the chances for snow on Christmas Eve is looking pretty slim for Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.
The only hope if you want snow is this morning's European Weather Agency's forecast model. It hinted at some overrunning moisture for the Missouri bootheel and western Kentucky Christmas morning. If that were to pan out, there could be maybe a dusting to a half inch of snow by Christmas afternoon. That being said, I wouldn't hold your breath just yet.
Monday, December 19, 2011
As is usually the case, it just depends on where you live. If you live in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas or Kansas you could definitely have a "WhiteChristmas". Blizzard-like conditions are expected later today.
Meanwhile, we're waiting to see if any snow will introduce itself in the forecasts for the Midwest.
This time of year there are "typical" storm tracks that will favor snow accumulation.
This means we're looking for low pressure systems to move from Dallas to the east/northeast.
Later this week models are now hinting at the possibility for a few snow flurries or snow showers to be flying through the skies of the Midwest.
Models are suggesting that moisture will ride far enough north that some of it could fall as snow in east/southeast Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky. Right now, amounts look minimal. Perhaps just flurries to a dusting in most locations. Although, a few spots, like Indianapolis, could see a half inch of snow. A lot of the fine details have yet to be shown.
That being said, the chances for a "White Christmas" seems relatively small for all of the areas described above. A "White Christmas" is defined as having 1 inch of snow measured on Christmas day. I don't think we'll see that much.
A lot will likely change in the forecast between now and the weekend so stay tuned to the forecast. Also, remember to follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) for more frequent updates.
- Posted from my iPhone
Friday, December 16, 2011
For several days forecast models have been hinting at a storm developing over the southwest United States, eventually moving through the Midwest. The models haven't been jiving too well with each other to the course the storm will take. If you follow me on Facebook you might remember a status update that said, "Models are flip flopping around..."
Last night's runs started coming together and this morning's model runs are pretty similar in to the track of the surface low. (See graphic below.)
The above graphic was created by AccuWeather but is pretty close to what the models are showing regarding the track of the storm.
Northwest of the surface low cold air is expected to move in. This will allow for some significant snowfall in parts of the country.
It is interesting to compare the amount of moisture north of the surface low that could interact with the cold air and fall as snow. Models are not on the same page with this feature.
The European forecast agency's computer model is more bullish on the liquid amounts compared to NOAA's computer model. Here's a closer look at what the models are indicating for liquid available during the time it would fall as snow.
- Kansas City - 0.77"
- Kirksville, Mo - 0.44"
- Columbia, Mo - 0.09"
- Kansas City - 0.09"
- Kirksville, Mo - 0.03"
- Columbia, Mo - 0.00"
- Posted from my iPhone
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
It is interesting to look back to a year ago and compare this year to last year's snow cover.
Take a look at the image above. (Click the graphic to see a larger version.). There's a pretty dramatic difference.
According to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, 24.6% of the United States is covered by snow. Contrast that to 2010 and on this date 38.4% of the country was covered by snow. That's a 36% decrease in snow cover! Take that back to 2009 and it's even more dramatic as 48.7% of the country was covered.
Temperatures were also a lot colder last year. Minimum temperatures on December 14, 2010 was 1° in Carbondale, 4° in Indianapolis and Paducah, 7° in Cape Girardeau and St. Louis. Instead this year temperatures are in the 50°'s.
- Posted from my iPhone
- 2011 - 24.6%
- 2010 - 38.4%
- 2009 - 48.7%
- 2008 - 40.9%
- 2007 - 50.2%
- 2006 - 13.2%
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
- Blytheville 2"
- Jonesboro 1"-2"
- Cooter 2"
- Hornersville 2.75"-3"
- Covington 2"
- Dyersburg 1"
- Jackson 1.5"
- Memphis 1"-2"
- Union City 1"
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
So far, data from just one of the models (the NAM) is in. The model seems to be coming in slightly wetter than earlier today. Snow to liquid ratios could be anywhere from 12:1 to maybe 16:1. The 16:1 may be pushing it a little because we aren't that cold at the surface. However, a 1,500' thousand feet up in the air we are -5 degrees Celsius.
Here is what the model is suggesting for moisture available and the potential snow using the ratios above.
CITY | Liquid | Snow (12:1)/(16:1)
- Blytheville, AR - 0.14" | 1.6" / 2.2"
- Cape Girardeau, MO - 0.02" | 0.2" / 0.3"
- Dyersburg, TN - 0.16" | 1.9" / 2.5"
- Jackson, TN - 0.17" | 2" / 2.7"
- Jonesboro, AR - 0.16" | 1.9" / 2.5"
- Murray, KY - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"
- Poplar Bluff, MO - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"
- Sikeston, MO - 0.05" | 0.6" / 0.8"
As previously mentioned, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday for parts of southeast Missouri, western Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and northern Mississippi.
The NWS is calling for up to 1.5" of snow to fall in the areas mentioned above.
As snow moves in from the west later tonight remember that you can check out the latest radar by clicking the "Radar" tab at the top of the page.
This is a look at this morning's run of the North American model (NAM) running a snow computation.
You can see that the model is spitting out anywhere from a dusting to 1" of snow in parts of the Missouri bootheel, western Kentucky northeast Arkansas, west Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
Surprisingly, this is pretty close to what I was thinking.
Unlike last week's snow, this one may be able to stick on the ground a little longer. We shall see. Stay tuned...
- Posted from my iPhone
There is still some uncertainty with the snow possibilities. Not all models have converged on the same solution. The other thing, there doesn't appear to be a lot of moisture to work with. However, like last week, it appears there will be enough cold air aloft (and at the surface) to support snow.
Here is a look at NOAA's morning run of the GFS model.
Specifically, this is looking at Wednesday afternoon.
The models shows an upper level low developing over Oklahoma late tonight and closing off by Wednesday morning over Arkansas. The low then pushes east deepening over west Tennessee.
They solid grey coloring indicates some very light moisture to work with. Looking at Murray, Kentucky it is showing only 0.03"- 0.02" of total liquid to work with. That's not a lot. However, if you fluff it up there could be a half inch of snow squeezed out if a snow to water ratio of 20:1 could happen.
I'm not sure if that high of a ratio could happen yet. Temperatures aloft (a few thousand feet) will be cold enough, it will greatly depend on temperatures at the surface.
Again, this is far from a sure bet we will see a measurable snow but it's something to keep an eye on. Stay tuned...
- Posted from my iPhone
Thursday, December 1, 2011
- Winter: December 1 - February 28 (or 29)
- Spring: March 1 - May 31
- Summer: June 1 - August 31
- Fall: September 1 - November 30
Monday, November 28, 2011
Just ahead and along the spoke precipitation should begin to pick up in intensity.
The Storm Prediction Center has also taken notice of the current environment. They have recently issued a Mesoscale Discussion for western Tennessee, southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas concerning snow rates picking up.
Laura Wibbenmeyer, former co-worker of mine at KFVS-TV, is in Portageville, Missouri and is reporting that it is all falling as snow. Nothing is sticking to the roads but snow is covering grass and car roofs.
The National Weather Service in Memphis is going a little higher than me with snow totals. They have mentioned that the freezing level has dropped further and is approximately 800-1,000 feet above the surface. If that is the case, more snow is likely to fall. Unfortunately, I don't have access to all the hi-res temperature profile data right now. (That is all located on my laptop at home.) However, I still think the snow will only accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Interesting to note the the NWS in Memphis has noticed that the rain is changing over to snow once the surface air temperature hits 36°-37°.
- Posted from my iPhone
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011
...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER
THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE
222 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.
* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY.
THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6AM CST
* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. HOWEVER IF SNOW COMES DOWN HEAVY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THEN DRIVING
COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION
Monday, November 21, 2011
Temperature departure from normal across the Midwest.
- Bloomington +4.4°
- Indianapolis +4.6°
- Lafayette +4.6°
- Carbondale +3.0°
- Chicago +3.5°
- Moline +1.8°
- Louisville +2.3°
- Paducah +2.9°
- Cape Girardeau +3.6°
- Chesterfield +3.9°
- Poplar Bluff +3.8°
- St. Louis +4.8°
Forecast models are hinting at a change in the weather pattern starting as early as this weekend. The change in the pattern should bring a prolonged period of colder air to much of the country.
Before we get too excited about the cold air coming for the weekend, let me say that Thanksgiving and the day after Thanksgiving look to be nice. Winds will begin to turn out of the south Friday (it will be breezy) and temperatures will climb under mainly sunny skies.
A strong cold front is projected to move through the central United States starting Friday. Along the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of the rain could be heavy at times Saturday/Sunday (depending on where you live).
Once the front passes, winds will shift and temperatures will plunge. Here's a view of the weather setup for Sunday evening as advertised by NOAA's global forecast computer model (GFS).
According to the GFS, cold air will dive all the way to the gulf coast by Sunday evening. (Hint: Look at the blue 540 line.) This also indicates an upper-level low will develop and center over Missouri by Sunday.
With the low, low clouds will hang around. The clouds are indicated by the gray shading. Along with the clouds notice the model keeps some precipitation around Illinois, extreme eastern Missouri and western Kentucky. IF this precipitation lags behind the cold front and IF the temperatures drop as much as advertised much of this moisture would fall in the way of light snow.
The European Forecast Agency's computer forecast model is also hinting at something very similar. (See above) The slight difference in the European model holds off the moisture until Monday afternoon/evening. At this point, it is splitting hairs between the two models. The key is to see the trend of what the two models are showing and the trend is very similar.
At this point I'm not concerned with the amounts as it should be relatively light. But yes, there could be snow flurries and snow showers Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Again, this is nothing to get excited about. My "Freak-Out-Meter" is pretty low, less than a 1 (on a scale of 1-10).
The models keep the cold air in place all next week. Yes, the temperatures might warm up a little but I think we will likely be below normal during the stretch. This would make sense with my belief in the "Law of Averages". November was very mild, relatively speaking, so we are due for some below normal temperatures.
Let's have some fun now... Look waaaay out in to the future. The GFS allows us to look 384 hours in to the future (16 days). At the end of the forecast run it is hinting at a decent storm developing along the gulf coast.
Over running the storm is a moisture plume that extends as far north as Kansas City. The model also brings down some colder air on the back side of the storm that would likely interact with the moisture plume spreading north. IF this storm were to pan out this way, that's a BIG IF, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky would likely start out as rain December 7 and eventually change over to a rain and/or snow mix by that night or early December 8. This would definitely bare watching if the model is right.
I should say that the model is not very good at depicting what is going to happen that far out in its run. The model is likely to take the storm out of the equation over the next several runs. In fact, what usually happens is the storm will show up once and then go away on all subsequent model runs. I just wanted to give you a "behind the scenes" look at some of the data meteorologists look at but don't always mention because we know it isn't likely to happen. But, as I like to say, "Stay tuned..."
Monday, November 14, 2011
According to SPC the threat appears to be isolated. It will depend on how many storms can get fired up in the next couple hours as to whether a watch will be issued.
A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for most of Indiana. That watch is in effect until 9pm ET.
- Posted from my iPhone
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
It appears the best chance for severe storms in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois would be later tonight.
There are still a few question mark for severe thunderstorms to develop.
We need to see the atmosphere destabilize. Right now the air mass in place is relatively stable. As the surface low currently over Texas/Oklahoma tracks northeast the low will deepen (become stronger). Ahead of the low, southerly winds should tap in to more humid air to the south.
Forecast models are indicating instability should move back north and allow the atmosphere to become unstable by tonight.
If the air mass can become unstable there will likely see a few thunderstorms moving east across Arkansas and Missouri.
The main threat appears to be damaging wind. I can't rule out the chance of a quick spin up tornado, especially close to the track of the surface low. The good news is that if there is a tornado it won't be like the long lived tornadoes seen in Oklahoma yesterday.
- Will there be thunderstorms? Probably.
- Will there be a watch? Possibly.
- Will there be a severe weather outbreak? No.
- Could there be warnings? Yes, there could be a few.
- Should you freak out? No. Just keep an eye on the situation. Make sure you have your NOAA weather radio plugged in. Have a way to be alerted if a warning is issued for your location.
- Posted from my iPhone
Sunday, November 6, 2011
I have talked about the chance for colder air moving south out of the arctic in the next week and a half. Ahead of the colder air it appears we will have a chance for strong thunderstorms across the middle United States.
The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Missouri, all of Arkansas and places further south in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather 7am Tuesday through 7am Wednesday.
An area of low pressure is going to develop over New Mexico and Texas over the next two and a half days.
Strong winds in the jet stream will rotate around and provide lift in the atmosphere. By mid to late afternoon Tuesday I expect to see thunderstorms developing over eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and western Missouri. The thunderstorms should develop in to a line of storms that will move east across Missouri, Arkansas and further south.
I have been looking over the morning run of the GFS and NAM computer models. There are a few subtle differences between the models but both appear to be pointing at diverging winds at the 300mb level over southeast Missouri by Tuesday evening/night. The NAM keeps winds a little more divergent over Arkansas and the GFS keeps winds a little more divergent over southern Illinois.
Here is a look at one of the computer models. This indicates winds at 300mb (approximately 30,000 feet) 7pm CT Tuesday.
I look for divergent winds at 300mb because that gives an indication if there will be lift in the atmosphere. Diverging winds create a void and wind from below lift in to fill the void.
All of the above said, it looks to me there could be strong to severe storms along the line of storms as it moves through Arkansas and Missouri. It is still a little early to nail down the main threat from the storms but it damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and hail all could be possible.
Daylight Saving has come to an end. Hopefully you remembered to change the times on your clock this morning.
Fire departments across the country use the time change as an opportunity to remind everyone to replace the batteries in your smoke detectors. This is good practice. I want to suggest you take it a step further and use the time change as an opportunity to replace the batteries in your NOAA weather radios.
Friday, November 4, 2011
- When: 6:42pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 5 minutes.
- Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 55° above the horizon.
- When: 7:42pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
- Where: Look to the NW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 73° above the horizon.
- When: 7:41pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
- Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the SE. It will reach a height of 68° above the horizon.
- When: 6:40pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
- Where: Look to the WNW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the ESE. It will reach a height of 79° above the horizon.
- When: 6:41pm (local) - The space station will be visible for 6 minutes.
- Where: Look to the NW sky. The space station will travel across the sky and exit to the ESE. It will reach a height of 65° above the horizon.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
For the last couple of days NOAA's Global Forecast model (GFS) has been advertising some cold air building and marching south out of Canada for mid-November. The latest run of the GFS (12z) continues to hint at the cold air coming.
Right now it looks like the cold air would come down in two shots. The first would arrive in the Midwest/Ohio River Valley sometime around November 13/14.
The second shot, and most likely the colder of the two, would arrive in around November 16/17. (The image above depicts the morning of November 16.) If the above image were to hold true, then I might have to use the "s" word for the first time this season. Yes, snow.
Don't get too excited just yet. This is a LONG way out in the computer models. There is a likely climatological bias in the models trying to bring in cold air to keep in mind. If I were a betting person, I would say the above scenario is not likely to happen this far in advance. However, it is something to keep an eye on. Especially if you enjoy colder weather.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
La Nina returned in August and is expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters also say there will be a wild card in play that will allow dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter. The wild card is the Arctic Oscillation.
Here is an explanation of the Arctic Oscillation from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)...
The Arctic Oscillation refers to the opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in the northern middle and higher latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of Northn America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase, as illustrated below. Over most of the past century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases. Starting in the 1970's, however, the oscillation has tended to stay in the positive phase, causing lower than normal arctic air pressure and higher than normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia.
So what does all of this mean? Here is a look at NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for 2011-2012. Remember that winter is considered December through February.
According to the outlook...
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys: Wetter than average with equal chances for above, near, or below average temperatures. Potential for increased storminess and flooding.
Great Lakes: Colder and wetter than average.
The outlook specifically points out "The seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance."
I don't know about you, but I am ready to start talking about snow. What about you? What would you like to see this winter? Weekly snow storms or calm and 55°? Let me know by leaving what you'd like to see for the winter in the comments section of this post.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
So when is the normal first frost and freeze? The Midwest Regional Climate Center has put together some nice maps to try and help show when dates of the average first 32° F and 28° F temperatures.
Average Date of 32° F Freeze:
Average Date of 28° F Freeze:
According to the National Weather Service office in Paducah the mean date of the first freezing temperatures over the last 30 years for Paducah, KY is October 25 and October 26 for Evansville, IN.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
One of the challenges in making this video, was trying to get good storm with stars shots. The opportunity doesn't come along very often, the storm has to be moving the right speed and the lightning can overexpose the long exposures. I had several opportunities this summer to get storm and star shots. In one instance, within a minute of picking up the camera and dolly, 70mph winds hit. One storm was perfect, it came straight towards the setup, then died right before it reached it.
Extended cut available here http://dakotalapse.com/?p=448
At the 1:57 mark a Whitetail buck came in to check out the setup. It was caught on 20 frames, and was there for about 10 minutes. It was only 50 yards from the camera, dolly and light.
At the 3:24 mark, a meteor reflects on the water of the small lake, see still below in Photos. There are also quite a few other meteors in the timelapse.
This was all shot in central South Dakota from June-August.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Take a look at temperatures from this morning. The below freezing line crossed the U.S./Canadian border. Where's Homeland Security when you need them? Haha
A cold front is moving through the Midwest today. Yesterday, ahead of the front, highs climbed in to the 90°'s. Today, temps are being held down in the 60°'s.
- Posted from my iPhone
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Yes, that is right. I am going to be back on the television giving you the latest forecast. You can watch my forecast starting this Saturday on Fox59 News at 10 on WXIN-TV in Indianapolis, Indiana.
I will be working as one of the weekend meteorologists at the station for three weeks this month.
Don't worry, if you don't live in central Indiana and can't get the station on television, they stream their newscasts live on their website - www.fox59.com. Keep in mind that Indiana is in the eastern time zone. The 10pm ET news will be on at 9pm ET in Missouri, Illinois and western Kentucky.
Currently scheduled dates I will be on Fox59 News at 10:
- Saturday, September 10
- Saturday, September 17
- Sunday, September 18
- Saturday, September 24
- Sunday, September 25
I am not a total stranger to WXIN. During the summer of 1997 I interned in the weather department with the station's chief meteorologist, Brian Wilkes. After the internship ended they couldn't get rid of me. I stuck around and helped out in the weather department when storms would move through the state. In many ways I became an apprentice to Brian. Most of my forecasting "know how" has come from him.
After college I was looking for a weather position at a television station. Eventually, I was offered the position at KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. However, there was a three month period between college and my start at KFVS. To fill the space I worked as a sports videographer for Fox59. It was a lot of fun as I was able to cover the Indianapolis Colts, the Indianapolis Indians, the NHRA Bud Shootout, PGA golf, college football and high school football.
Hope you will catch me on the tube over the next couple of weeks!
Friday, September 2, 2011
Grab the family (especially kids) and head outside and take a look up in to the sky and see it pass overhead.
To see it, use the information for the various locations listed below and go outside. Look in the specific direction just above the horizon. Look for a dot that looks like a star but is slowly moving. It will initially start out dim but will get brighter and brighter. It may even look like an aircraft but it won't have flashing lights.
- Cape Girardeau (Southeast Missouri): Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 53° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
- Chicago: Starting at 7:58pm (local time) look to the west. It will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 56° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
- Columbus (Indiana): Starting at 8:57pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 72° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
- St. Louis: Starting at 7:57pm (local time) look to the northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 62° above the horizon, and exit to the east-southeast. It will be viewable for five minutes.
- Indianapolis: Starting at 8:58pm (local time) look to the west-northwest. The space station will track across the sky, reaching a maximum elevation of 69° above the horizon, and exit to the southeast. It will be viewable for four minutes.
- Currently, there are six crew members aboard the ISS. Three from Russia. Two from the United States. One from Japan.
- The space station is as long as a football field (357 feet).
- Living space is 12,705 cubic feet.
- It weighs 925,627 lbs.
- 2.3 million lines of computer code to run the space station.
- 8 solar rays generate 84 kilowatts of electricity.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
However, my gut still tells me Irene moves out to sea.
- Posted from my iPhone
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Sunday, August 7, 2011
I hear people complain all the time, "It's really bad here. Why isn't there a warning?". Often times the answer is the storm hasn't met severe criteria or we haven't gotten reports of severe weather (58+mph winds, 1"+ hail or tornadoes).
If you feel that it is bad, take cover. Please don't wait for us to tell you there is a warning and then take cover.
There is no reason to get upset if you think the storm is bad and there isn't a warning. It's almost as if people can't seek shelter unless a warning is issued.
- Posted from my iPhone
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
A lot of work and planning has gone on behind the scenes at the station to get the switch complete. A brand new set had to be designed, built, shipped and installed. Not to mention the HUGE expense of a new set ($$). All new television broadcast equipment had to be ordered, delivered and installed. Some of the new things include HD monitors, new switcher, graphics computers, wiring, lights, etc. I can tell you that the planning has been going on for months and, in some cases, years. Great job to everyone in the Engineering and News departments at KFVS.
I am going to be filling in for weather this Saturday, July 30 on Heartland News at 6pm, Heartland News at 9pm and Heartland News at 10pm. So you will soon get to see me in HD. I apologize in advance for having to see me in HD. It could be a scary!
I have gotten a lot of questions asked if I am coming back to KFVS12. I am not going back to KFVS12 full time. Before I left, I told the station I would be willing fill in for an occasional Saturday shift until they find a person to fill my old position. This is more of an occasional thing, not permanent.
On a side note: I have been a little slow at updating my forecast page. I am still in the process of getting moved in to a place in St. Louis. In fact, I am playing a game of musical hotels until my place is ready. Once I get settled in I will be able to get in to a routine of updating the forecasts on a daily basis.
Friday, July 22, 2011
You can see me starting with The Weekend Breakfast Show from 6am-7am. Then I'll be on Heartland News at 6pm, Heartland News at 9pm on Fox23 and on Heartland News at 10pm. (All times listed in CT.)
It has been a month since I was last on the air giving the weather forecast so hopefully I haven't forgotten how to do it.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Friday, July 15, 2011
I don't know how long the deal is good for and I don't know if the price is good for other times of the year, i.e. if you look at November or December. I imagine the prices are higher then as you get out of hurricane season and in to the winter season.
I am thinking about taking up the deal and flying down to Tampa for the Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Monday Night football game.
If you know me, you know I LOVE to travel. Not just travel, but find good (and cheap) deals for travel. To me, half the enjoyment of a trip is the planning and purchasing process.
Forecast models are advertising hot air building back east of the Rocky Mountains and central Plains. An area of high pressure will establish itself in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This upper-level high is going to allow for temperatures to likely climb higher than the models are indicating at this time.
Over time, this upper-level high, a.k.a. Hot Dome, will move to the east over Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Indiana.
Here is a look at the European Forecast Agency's computer forecast model's projection for 7pm CT Wednesday, July 20.
What you are looking at is the atmosphere at 500mb (approximately 18,000 feet). This is the level that I am looking at for the upper-level high. You can see it centered over St. Louis. It is the area inside of the 594 line.
With high pressure, air sinks. As it sinks it compresses. When a gas, in this case air, compresses it heats. This is what usually causes extremely high temperatures in the summer. Since the high will be right over the Midwest, temperatures will likely be high.
Here is a look at forecast temperatures by the European model for the same time frame.
The image is showing the temperature in Celsius at 850mb or approximately 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere.
Most likely the computer models do not have a good grasp of the higher temperatures just yet. I suspect we'll see the models trending warmer for next week over the weekend.
Highs will likely top out in the upper 90°'s to maybe 100° by mid-week. The timing of the heat obviously depends on how quickly the upper-level high moves in to the Midwest. Regardless, have your air conditioners, water bottles, pools, slip-n-slides and fans ready to go for next week!
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
A frontal boundary has stalled out just north of St. Louis. There could be some storm development from the St. Louis area down through southern Illinois later today. I think storms could fire around 4pm CT. A few strong to severe storms will be possible. Main threat: damaging wind (from collapsing storms) and heavy rain due to their slow movement.
- Posted from my iPhone
Monday, July 11, 2011
- St. Louis: 100°
- Cape Girardeau*: 98°
- Marion, IL*: 97°
- Paducah*: 97°
- Louisville*: 96°
- Indianapolis*: 95°
- Columbus, IN*: 95°
Monday, July 4, 2011
Not all counties will be available. Initially, I am going to start with a smaller number of higher populated counties from southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky. I am also going to include a couple counties from the St. Louis area and central Indiana.
- Illinois: Jackson, Saline, Williamson
- Indiana: Bartholomew, Brown, Hamilton, Marion
- Kentucky: Calloway, Graves, McCracken
- Missouri: Butler, Cape Girardeau, Scott, Madison, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Perry, Scott, Ripley, St. Charles, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, St. Louis, St. Louis (city)
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