Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Prospects of a White Christmas in central Indiana this year

A lot of people starting to ask about the prospects of a White Christmas in central Indiana.

Meteorologists define "White Christmas" as having 1" of snow on the ground at 7am December 25.  Historically, Indianapolis has had a White Christmas 28% of the years since 1899.  The last White Christmas was 2017 and the city has only had it two out of the last 17 years.  So you could say we are overdue for snow Christmas morning.

Let me just say that it too early to say with any certainty if there will, or won't be, snow on the ground for Christmas.  Considering it takes just a few hundredths of an inch of liquid to produce 1" of snow (when it is very cold), it is impossible to forecast this far in advance.

That being said, I have taken a closer look at the long range global computer model ensembles.  Specifically, the ECMWF, GFS, and the CMC.

If you don't know, computer model ensembles are a combination of computer model runs.  Instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions. The complete set of forecasts is referred to as the ensemble, and individual forecasts within it as ensemble members.

The three ensembles - ECMWF, GFS, and CMC - result in a total of 100 different forecasts, or ensemble members.  Out of the 100, 75 members suggest there will be at least 1" of snow on the ground 7am December 25.  It should be noted that is a 6.3% decrease from Tuesday night's runs.

The images show the various members of the ensembles.

Keep in mind this is just one instance of runs.  This is going to, and likely will, change every six hours as more data becomes available.

One thing that is looking more and more likely is a blast of cold air coming to the Midwest late next week.  For more on that, visit my FB page and scroll down to the previous post.

Let me know what you are hoping for Christmas.  A White Christmas or not.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Turning the Page

DID YOU KNOW: You know I like to come up with interesting stats, so here are a couple for you.
4,799 and 1,404

These are the number of forecasts (4,799) and newscasts (1,404) I will have appeared on Channel 8 News (KLKN-TV) through August 30. I mention the numbers because August 30 will be my last day at KLKN-TV.

This decision did not come hastily. I have been contemplating it for over a year and made the decision at the beginning of the year.

I have thoroughly enjoyed working evenings with Rod Fowler and Megan Conway and most recently in the mornings with Andrew Ward and Katrina Sperl. I have also enjoyed working with the talented team of meteorologists amassed during my time at the station.

I had several goals I wanted to accomplish when arriving at the station in August 2020.
  • First and foremost, keep viewers safe and informed when it comes to the weather. And maybe the viewer will learn a few things about weather along the way.
  • Secondly, bring professionalism to the weather department.
  • Third, build trust with our viewers. (And hopefully gain viewers along the way.) I wanted viewers to know they could tune in during severe weather coverage or on “normal” days and know they could get a straightforward forecast without hype.
I like to think those were met and accomplished.

Finally, I want to thank everyone in Nebraska for welcoming me into their homes and always saying hello when meeting me out and about. Also, thank you for not getting too angry with me when I had to cut-in to programming, wiping out your television shows. Just know, I did it to try to keep every person – regardless of what city they reside – safe.

Additionally, after nearly 23 years, now is the right time for me to get out of the tv weather business.

This does not mean you could not see me filling in a time or two at a station in the future because I still have a love of weather. And I will continue to post weather information on Twitter (@JohnDissauer), Facebook (/DissauerWx) and here on my blog.

What’s next… I am now looking for new career opportunities outside of the television and weather business. (If you know of any opportunities you think would be a good fit, send me a message!)