Tuesday, December 25, 2012

10:50pm Weather Update - Final Snow Matrix

This storm is upon us and there isn't much more to do from a forecasting stand point except for sitting back and watching things develop.  Winds are already starting to pick-up in western Kentucky and southeast Missouri.  Scattered power outages are already being reported in the Missouri bootheel.


My thinking as to ETA's haven't changed since my previous post and for the most part, the models are staying relatively consistent with snow totals.

Click image to see larger version.
One thing to keep in mind however, there is drier air getting sucked up in to the storm behind the line of convection (thunderstorm) down along the gulf coast.  One thing that could happen, and does so often, is the convection could rob some of the moisture resulting in lower snowfall totals.

Also, while looking at the thermal profile of the atmosphere, temperatures are expected to hover near 32 degrees F for part of the morning in southern Indiana.  This could allow for some melting and the precipitation to fall as sleet.

Having said all of that, here is a snow matrix with numbers from this evening's computer model runs, the NAM and the GFS.
CITY
0z NAM
0z GFS
AVG
Cape Girardeau
15.1”
9.4”
12.2”
Cairo, IL
14.4”
10.5”
12.4”
Columbus, IN
11.1”
7.9”
9.5”
Bloomington, IN
15.0”
6.8”
10.9”
Dyersburg, TN
7.2
4.3”
5.7”
Indianapolis
12.7”
9.0”
10.8”
Lafayette, IN
3.3”
5.8”
4.5”
Marion, IL
16.6”
9.6”
13.1”
Muncie, IN
12.6”
9.8”
11.2”
Paducah, KY
13.6”
8.6”
11.1”
Poplar Bluff, Mo
13.8”
8.0”
10.9”
St. Louis
0.0”
1.3”
0.6”
Union City, TN
7.4”
3.5”
5.4”

1 comments:

Still trying to find a couple days without weather woes to make a small trip to biloxi, Ms from Missouri. Will the next storm scheduled for Friday be anything to worry about? I don`t want to travel during the storm (leave before and return after) but don`t want to have to fight my way back into semo through the aftermath. Help John!!

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