Wednesday, December 19, 2012

8:00pm Weather Update - Severe Weather Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has put out their 7pm CT severe weather outlook that covers the rest of tonight through 6am CT Thursday morning.

They continue to leave southeast Missouri and parts of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather.
(Click the image to see larger version.)

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for southwest Missouri and western Arkansas.

High resolution computer models are suggesting a line of thunderstorms will begin to develop starting around 11:00pm CT over eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas.  The line will move east and it appears to reach the Mississippi River around 7am CT Thursday.  The last couple runs of computer models have suggested the line of storms and the cold front may be slowing down in time of arrival.  This trend continues with the latest data coming in.

I don't think there will be widespread severe weather.  I'm also not completely convinced that there will be many thunderstorms.  It will depend on whether the storms develop in low instability out west.  That being said, if there are storms, the main threat with any thunderstorm that moves in to the "Heartland" will be damaging straight line winds.  However, with the change in wind speeds at different heights would allow for an isolated tornado or two.

If you have a NOAA weather radio and live in the "Slight Risk" area highlighted, I would be sure to turn it on before going to bed just in case the line moves in earlier than what the data is indicating.

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