Tuesday, December 25, 2012

8:30pm Weather Update - ETA's

The evening runs of the computer models are starting to come in.  There has already been reports of freezing rain and sleet in northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.  The precipitation will continue to spread northeast across the Midwest over the coming hours.

There appears to be a warm layer of air at 5,000 feet above the ground.  When I say "warm layer" I mean temperatures above freezing (32 F).  This is causing the precipitation to fall as liquid and then freeze either before or as it reaches the ground.

The Storm Prediction Center highlights parts of northeast Arkansas, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and parts of western Kentucky for blizzard like conditions and heavy snowfall.

(Click image to see larger version.)

They suggest snowfall rates will be 1" to 2" per hour at times overnight.  The expect the onset of blizzard like conditions to start in southeast Missouri between 9pm CT and 11pm CT, and near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence between 10pm CT and 2am CT Wednesday.

Other ETA's:

  • Southern Indiana (Columbus, IN and south):  Precipitation should reach the Kentucky/Indiana border (near Evansville, IN) around 11:30pm ET.  The moisture will continue to spread northeast reaching Columbus, IN around 3am Wednesday.
  • Central Indiana:  Precipitation should begin to move in to Indianapolis metro's south side around 5am ET and reaching the north side around 6am ET.

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