Sunday, February 28, 2010

Severe Weather Season

We are about 45 minutes away from the start of a new season. The start of "Meteorological Spring".

In meteorology we have slightly different start and end times for seasons compared to the calendar.

Meteorological Seasons:
  • Spring: March - May
  • Summer: June - August
  • Fall: September - November
  • Winter: December - February
Now that we are getting in to spring we can put all of the snow, ice, and sleet behind us. Right? So lets start to turn our attention to severe weather season. I am sure we aren't too terribly far away from some good thunderstorms rumbling through.

Now I have two questions for you that I want YOU to answer.
  1. When will the first Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center include a portion of the KFVS viewing area? (Month/Day)
  2. When will the first watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado watch) be in effect for a portion of the KFVS viewing area? (Month/Day)
Leave your answers in the comment sections for this post.

The Week Ahead

It is a nice day outside today. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures at 1:00pm CT in the middle to upper 40's. Not too shabby albeit still a few degrees below normal.

Lets take a glance at the week to come... weather wise. Here is a view of this morning's computer model run of NOAA's global forecast model for Cape Girardeau, Missouri.


In the above graphic: Time runs right to left. The vertical solid colored bars indicate precipitation. Green - rain. Blue - snow. The red line is the surface temperature. The grey boxes are clouds at varying heights.

It is looking like a relatively quiet week ahead. Notice the clouds streaming in starting Monday. This will be cloud cover coming in off a system that should miss us to the south. The clouds will stick around for a couple of days.

Temperatures will also drop off for Tuesday and Wednesday. This model puts high temperatures in the upper 30's to lower 40's. (If it was a month ago we'd probably be talking high temperatures in the upper 20's.) We will start to rebound with the temperatures for Thursday and Friday as high temperatures climb in to the upper 40's to lower 50's.

Question marks exist for the weekend. Notice the model brings in rain for both Saturday and Sunday. The model spits out about 0.2" of rain for late Friday night through Saturday morning. Then it puts out an additional 0.25" for Sunday. We'll see if this stays in the forecast as we go through the week.

If you are sick of the cold here is something to boost your spirits. Meteorological spring starts tomorrow (March 1)!

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Feeling the Earthquake at Home

It is amazing to see how the earth works. We were able to "feel" the Haiti earthquake in January. Just like the Haiti quake, we could "feel" or measure this morning's Chile 8.8 magnitude earthquake.

Take a look at some of the helicorders from around the region. Time goes from top of the screen to the bottom.

First I want to show you a helicorder from a calm day two days ago.


Here are the helicorders from this morning across the region. The earthquake happened around 6:34 UTC.

Bloomington, IN:


Carbondale, IL:


Poplar Bluff, MO:


St. Louis, MO:

Forecast Engery Map

If you follow my blog you know that I like to look at forecast models. Here is an interesting image from the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center. It is the preliminary forecast model energy map.


I added Hawaii, Alaska, and the United States so you can get your bearings. It is showing the energy moving through the Pacific Ocean. It is this energy that powers the tsunami.

You can watch live coverage from Raycom News Network's KHNL-TV in Honolulu.

Earthquake: South America

By now you might have heard there was an overnight earthquake in Chile, South America. The earthquake measured at 8.8 magnitude.

To put the Chile earthquake in perspective lets compare it to the devastating earthquake that hit Haiti in January. The Haiti earthquake was a 7.0 magnitude earthquake. This means that the Chile earthquake was roughly 850 to 900 times stronger than the Haiti earthquake.

I have been looking over some of the data from the US Geological Survey's earthquake website. The earthquake started at 3:34am Chile time. The epicenter was 200 miles southwest of Santiago, Chile.

This was a deep earthquake. It was measured at 21.7 miles below the surface. That is important to know. The deeper the earthquake often times the less shaking takes place at the surface. Earthquakes in southeast Missouri are typically much more shallow. Generally in the 2-7 miles deep.

Just like Haiti, strong aftershocks continue to shake Chile. Through 7:40am CT there have been 19 aftershocks ranging from 5.0 magnitude to 6.2 magnitude.

Another threat from the earthquake is the possibility of tsunamis. At one point this morning there were Tsunami Warnings in place for 40 countries across the world. Hawaii will be evacuating some locations across the islands at 6am Hawaii time. You can follow coverage from Hawaii from our Raycom News Network affiliate KHNL on their website. You can also watch their LIVE coverage here. The waves are expected to hit Hawaii around 3:00pm CT Saturday afternoon.

Additional information from the USGS site regarding the region the earthquake hit.

This earthquake occurred at the boundary between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates. The two plates are converging at a rate of 80 mm per year. The earthquake occurred as thrust-faulting on the interface between the two plates, with the Nazca plate moving down and landward below the South American plate.

Coastal Chile has a history of very large earthquakes. Since 1973, there have been 13 events of magnitude 7.0 or greater. The February 27 shock originated about 230 km north of the source region of the magnitude 9.5 earthquake of May, 1960 – the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. This magnitude 9.5 earthquake killed 1655 people in southern Chile and unleashed a tsunami that crossed the Pacific, killing 61 people in Hawaii, Japan, and the Philippines. Approximately 870 km to the north of the February 27 earthquake is the source region of the magnitude 8.5 earthquake of November, 1922. This great quake significantly impacted central Chile, killing several hundred people and causing severe property damage. The 1922 quake generated a 9-meter local tsunami that inundated the Chile coast near the town of Coquimbo; the tsunami also crossed the Pacific, washing away boats in Hilo harbor, Hawaii. The magnitude 8.8 earthquake of February 27, 2010 ruptured the portion of the South American subduction zone separating these two massive historical earthquakes.

A large vigorous aftershock sequence can be expected from this earthquake.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Noon Weather Update: Temperature Spread

Its warming nicely for the southern half of the KFVS viewing area.


At noon temperatures range from 63° in Cape Girardeau and Paducah to 48° in Farmington, Mo to 41° in St. Louis. Think something is going on in the atmosphere today? haha

From the Weather Factoids.... Today's 63° temperature at Cape Girardeau is the highest temperature for 2010. (We still haven't reached the high temperature of the day.) It has been 84 days since we last saw a temperature of 63° or higher. It was 65° on November 28, 2009.

There has been some nice sunshine over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee but that will be coming to an end soon. Take a look at the visible satellite image taken at 12:10pm CT below.


Showers and thunderstorms are moving across central Missouri and Arkansas. Expect to see rain move in from the southwest by mid-afternoon.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

11:00pm Weather Update: Enjoy It While You Can

The official high temperature at the Cape Girardeau airport was 60° this afternoon. This is the highest temperature in the last 27 days. The previous day this warm was January 19 (61°).

Another interesting weather factoid I pulled up this evening. I wanted to compare the start of this year to 2009. You will remember that 2009 was the year of the MAJOR ice storm that hit the area.

Number of 60°+ days January 1 through February 19.
  • 2009: 8 (2 in January & 6 in February)
  • 2010: 2 (1 in January & 1 in February)
I have just been looking over the data coming in late tonight. Tomorrow is looking like another good day. High temperatures will range from the lower 50's to around 60° again.

I think we should see a good deal of sunshine during the morning and early afternoon. Clouds will start to increase and then rain will start to move in from the west. Our hi-res model, RPM, is hinting at a line of rain, with embedded thunderstorms, moving in to our western counties of southeast Missouri around 6pm CT. Some thunder is not out of the question tomorrow evening. No concerns. Nothing severe is expected.

Enjoy the mild temperatures tomorrow as everything is pointing to a return of cold air starting Monday evening. The coldest day should be Wednesday with Thursday morning being the coldest morning. Currently, I am going for a high temperature of 30° for both Wednesday and Thursday, but some of the new data coming in tonight is making my number look a little optimistic. Perhaps highs in the 20°'s? We shall see...

Noon Weather Update: Soak It In

At Noon temperatures are in the middle to upper 50's.

The 55° temperature at the Cape Girardeau Regional Airport is the warmest temperature in 26 days.

We have seen a nice gradual increase over the last couple of days.
  • Feb. 15 - 28°
  • Feb. 16 - 34°
  • Feb. 17 - 44°
  • Feb. 18 - 49°
  • Feb. 19 - 51°
It is amazing at how quickly the sun warms things out this time of February. Did you know that the sun's strength on the Midwest is about twice that of what it was a month ago? This time of year I often under-forecast high temperatures as we are starting to get in to the transition period from winter to spring.

Even with the 50° the last two days we are still well below normal as far as temperatures are concerned. Through yesterday, Feb. 19, we are 5.3° below average per day for the month.

Get out and enjoy the warmer temperatures this weekend as it won't be around long. All signs indicate that another shot of cold air is coming down our way.

Above is an image from the European forecast model of surface pressure and temperatures around 3,000 feet up in the atmosphere at 6pm CT Wednesday. As you can see, it brings in a shot of cold air for Wednesday.

We might be getting to the corner, but we haven't rounded it just yet.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Update: Weekend Weather Outlook

The models continue to indicate "warm" air will be in place for the upcoming rounds of storms coming through this weekend. This means that for most of us we will be mainly dealing with rain.

Take a look at the snowfall accumulations maps from this morning's GFS and NAM runs. Notice how the snow areas are well north of the region.

GFS (above)

NAM (above)

The Canadian model also keeps us warm. The below image from the Canadian model shows what could be going on Sunday evening. Remember the pink line is roughly the rain/snow line.


The Japanese model (below) is still trying to bring the storm further south compared to the other models. If the JMA is correct there could be an accumulating snow over the northwestern third Monday.


I should mention that the Canadian is hinting at some change over to some light snow on the backside of the system. However, the model is much drier compared to the JMA.

Since it appears we won't be dealing with much snow over the next couple of days, it looks like we will be dealing with rain instead. Some of the rain could be heavy. Here is a look at the NAM's quantitative precipitation forecast (how much rain could fall) over the next 84 hours.


It is showing that we could see anywhere from 0.50" to over 1" of rain during that time period. Some rain wouldn't be a bad thing. For the year we are 2.25" below normal.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Today's Weather Factoids

As of 2pm CT today the temperature at the Cape Girardeau Regional Airport was 46°. That makes today the warmest day of the month. It also makes today the warmest in last 24 days. The warmest previous day was 58° on January 24.

Today's 40°+ is the seventh day this month to reach 40° or more. Fourteen of the previous 17 days (82%) have been below average. We are currently 5.6° below average per day this month. That works out to a temperature deficit of 95.2°.

Noon Update: Messy Weekend?

Everyone wants to know what is going on with the weather this weekend. If you know, shoot me an email. haha

Seriously, models have been a little all over the place with the two systems that will swing through. The first arriving Friday night through Saturday morning and the second coming in Sunday night. Many of the models try to push in slightly warmer air as the storm moves in to southeast Missouri. So right now, everything seems to point at mainly rain for the majority of the KFVS viewing area. However, as you look at the northern third of the area there could be a mix of rain, sleet, and a little snow.

Here is a look at this morning's NAM's output of snowfall amounts through 84 hours (Sunday afternoon).


Just beyond the reach of the NAM is the Sunday night system. This one looks to be the more troublesome of the two systems as it could bring some snow to parts of the area.

Again, models are all over the board. The GFS brings the warmer air north and keeps the KFVS viewing area mainly rain.

Here is a look at the GFS snowfall totals through 120 hours.


It is interesting to take a look at some other models with the Sunday storm. Today I'll give you a look at the Canadian model and the Japanese model.

First here is the Canadian model.

The image (above) shows what is going at 6pm CT Sunday. This looks like a typical winter storm for this region. The rain/snow line is the pink line and splits this area in two. North of the line would be snow. South of the line would be rain. And somewhere along the line would be a mix.

This image (above) shows what is going on at 12am CT Monday. You can see the rain/snow line sliding south indicating that colder air is moving in on the back side of the storm.

Here is the Japanese model.

The above image shows the model data at 6am CT Sunday. Take a look at where the rain/snow line is located. It is much further north and north of the storm. As warm air is drawn north on southerly winds ahead of the storm it would keep the moisture as rain. Perhaps on the backside of the storm there could be some change over, but this model still keeps the cold air a bit further north on the backside of the storm.

So what is the bottom line? It is too early to tell exactly what type of precipitation is going to fall with the Sunday/Monday morning storm. Hopefully the models will start to come in to better agreement as we get closer to the storm.

Review of Valentine's Snow

I wanted to take a second and follow up on the Valentine's Night storm. The storm dropped as little as a dusting of snow to as much as 4" in the KFVS viewing area.

Here is a look at a map with snowfall amounts drawn on from the National Weather Service office in Paducah.


Here was my forecast.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Snow Totals & A Look Back

The snow has come to an end. Yes, we will still see some snow floating through the air today, but as far as the accumulating snow we are done.

How much snow did we pick up? Here is a look at reports sent in to the National Weather Service around the area.
  • Red Bud, IL 4.1"
  • Mt. Vernon, IL 4"
  • Plumfield, IL 3"
  • Water Valley, KY 2.3"
  • Pinckneyville, IL 2"
  • Shawneetown, MO 2"
  • Bloomsdale, MO 1"
  • Mayfield, KY 1"
  • Sharon, TN 1"
  • Union City, TN 1"
  • Cape Girardeau, MO 0.9"
  • Farmington, MO 0.5"
  • Marble Hill, MO 0.2"
The 0.9" of snow picked up in Cape Girardeau brings our winter seasonal (2009-2010) snow total to 13.3". This is the most snow we have seen during the winter since 2004-2005.

Over the last 40 years we have averaged 12.6" of snow per winter. Here is how the snow totals rank over the last 11 years.
  1. 23.3" 2002-2003
  2. 14.1" 2004-2005
  3. 13.3"* 2009-2010
  4. 11.6" 2000-2001
  5. 8.8" 2005-2006
  6. 8.4" 2001-2002
  7. 6.3" 2007-2008
  8. 5.3" 1999-2000
  9. 3.9" 2003-2004
  10. 3.3" 2006-2007
  11. 3.0" 2008-2009
*We're not done yet.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

6:20pm Weather Update

At 6:00pm CT, snow and some rain (to the south) is falling across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Light snow was being reported in Sparta (IL), Carbondale, Marion, Harrisburg, Cape Girardeau, Cairo, and Paducah.

Here is a look at the radar at approximately 5:45pm CT.


The snow will probably taper off a few hours before the upper-level portion of the storm moves through. You can see the upper-level portion of the storm taking shape across the western part of Missouri in this radar image.


Snow totals will be pretty close to what I had on here yesterday. I have "fine tuned" the amounts a little. Basically I have taken the amounts down just a bit.


The above are my snowfall amounts through late morning Monday.

10:00am Weather Update

At 10:00am temperatures around the region range from 30° in Mt. Vernon, Illinois to 42° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri. Snow is reported in Carbondale, Carmi, Mt. Vernon, and Sparta, Illinois and visibilities have dropped to 1/2 mile in Mt. Vernon and 1 mile in Carbondale.

As is usually the case "clippers" don't bring much snow to southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and extreme southern Illinois.

Data coming in from last night is supporting the above statement. The NAM computer model seems to have the best handle on this "storm".

Here is a look at a regional view of snowfall forecast amounts from this morning's run of the NAM:


Here is a look at the same model in the KFVS viewing area:


It is still looking like the precip should be moving in later tonight as the upper-level low moves in. This will be the snow-maker for the area with this storm. The heaviest snow will be over southern Illinois (Northeast sections of southern Illinois).

Saturday, February 13, 2010

10:20pm Weather Update: How Much Snow?

Here's my latest thinking as to how much snow we will see through Monday afternoon.


It appears that there will be less and less moisture to work with for this system. This isn't too surprising as clipper systems like this typically don't bring much snow to this area. It is looking like the heaviest snow from this system will fall over south central Indiana.

I don't expect for us to see very much from this system overnight. That isn't saying we couldn't see anything, but I don't think it is likely. The heaviest snow will come as the upper level portion of the storm moves in and through the area.

Generally, the heaviest snow around the KFVS viewing area will be in northern portions of southern Illinois. A 2" to 4" snow isn't out of the question with a few locations getting 4.5".

South of that area is the 1" to 3" band. Honestly, I don't think there will be too many 3" reports from that area. I think it will mainly be a 1" to 2" area.

Afternoon Data

This will be a quick post/update. Finally, all of the afternoon data is in from the computer models. At this point in the game I am looking more for trends amongst the models than anything else. Both the GFS and the NAM afternoon model runs seem to be taking the precip a little further north.

Here is the 18z NAM run. Snow accumulations through Monday night.


Here is the 18z GFS run. Snow accumulations through Monday night.


I should say that I normally don't give a lot of stock in the 6z/18z runs of the computer models. When they ingest data to start the modeling process, they do not include upper-air data in the initialization.

To contrast this information one of our 12km forecast model, the RPM, tries to drop even more snow across the area. It is suggesting a 2"- 7.5" snow across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. haha I'm not buying this one at all. This model likes to flip flop more than a dead fish on the beach.


I am still feeling pretty good with my snow forecast from earlier today. Although, if the north trend continues in the models, it could be a little less than forecast.

New Morning Data In

Just looking over the data from the 12z (6am CT) runs of the computer models. I'm sticking with my going forecast from earlier today (scroll down).

Here is what the models are putting out for snowfall for the region. Remember, this is not my forecast, just what computer models are suggesting.

12z NAM Snowfall amounts through 6:00pm CT Monday:


12z GFS Snowfall amounts through 6:00pm CT Monday:


I think the NAM is a little closer to reality. Here is a zoomed in look for the KFVS viewing area.


There could be parts of southeast Missouri that only receive rain from this as depicted above.

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded

The National Weather Service offices in Paducah and Memphis have placed some of their counties under a Winter Weather Advisory. The advisory is in effect 9:00pm CT Saturday through 9:00am CT Sunday.


The advisory covers all of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and parts of southeast Missouri.

I would anticipate additional Winter Weather Advisories being issued for Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

More Like It

I am just looking over the data from last night's runs of the computer models. It looks like the models are coming back towards reality.

Here is the data from NOAA's NAM forecast model.


A couple of items to take note of when compared to the data from yesterday morning.

1) First and foremost... Not as much precipitation. During the time period from Saturday night through Sunday morning the NAM is putting out around 0.06" of liquid. Snow wise, that would be about 0.5". During the Sunday afternoon through Monday morning time period the model is putting out 0.23" liquid. The model is showing some of that falling as rain. Snow wise, that would be around 2.2".

You can look at the type of precipitation by looking at the colored vertical bars. Green indicates rain. Blue indicates snow.

2) Temperature profile... The models keep the idea of "warm" air being at the surface. By warm, I am referring to temperatures above the freezing mark (0°C/32°F). With the warmer temperatures whatever falls will have a hard time accumulating. Either it will melt as it reaches the surface or it will be very wet/slushy.

The yellow lines indicate air temperatures at different altitudes. The temperatures are shown in celsius.

This run of the NAM brings in warmer temperatures at the surface. If this model is correct, temperatures could climb in to the upper 30's Sunday afternoon. Hence, the model is indicating rain. You can look at the surface temperature by looking at the red line. The line is shown in fahrenheit.

All totaled the NAM is putting down 2"-3" of snow for the two rounds. To compare, the NOAA's global forecast model is putting down 2.5"-3.5" of snow for the same two rounds. The same models are putting down a total of 3"-4.5" for the Farmington, Missouri area.

The data is much closer to what I was thinking in yesterday's post. As I said earlier, clipper systems historically don't put down a lot of snow around here. This clipper is a little different than most clippers due to the path. Typically, clippers slide through Illinois and Indiana. This one will slide further west and south going through Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

I am thinking 2"-3" of snow starting tonight through Monday morning for the northern half of southeast Missouri (up to 4" around Farmington/Ste. Genevieve), 2"-4" (maybe 4.5") for southern Illinois, 2"-3.5" is a good call for the northern half of western Kentucky.

Friday, February 12, 2010

6:30pm Weather Update: Need More Shovels?

At 6:00pm CT, temperatures around southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky range from 30° in Mt. Vernon, Illinois to 38° in Poplar Bluff, Missouri.

A weak disturbance is moving through creating snow flurries at times. The air is drier in the bottom 2,000' of the atmosphere so much of what is showing up on radar imagery is most likely not reaching the ground.

As mentioned earlier, another disturbance is forecast to come out of the Rockies and quickly dive to the southeast over the weekend. As the surface low develops moisture is likely to develop on the east/northeast side of the low. As the surface low moves in towards the KFVS viewing area moisture could start to fall and reach the ground. Initially it will fall as a rain/snow mixture before turning over to sleet.

You can see this a little easier by looking at the afternoon run of NOAA's global forecast model.

The above model data is depicting the weather for Cape Girardeau.

Blue vertical bars indicate snow. Orange vertical bars indicate sleet.

During the initial rain/snow period the model is depicting 0.1" of liquid to work with. If it were to fall as all snow we could be talking 1.2" to 1.5" of snow.

As the system swings through cold air will start to usher in on the back side. If this model is correct, available moisture should increase meaning the snow should increase. The models are spitting out 0.35" of liquid which would turn in to an additional 4"-5" of snow on the back side of the low (round 2).

There are several elements in play that are keeping me from totally buying in to this solution.

Lets talk temperatures... Temperatures are extremely important for a snow accumulating storm. The red line in the above graphic shows the surface temperature. You can see temperatures will be straddling the 32°-33° range Saturday evening through Sunday morning. You can get an idea what the temperatures are by looking at the scale on the far right in gray.

Look at the yellow lines in the graphic. The yellow lines indicate the temperature at different levels of the atmosphere. Look to the right and you can see a scale of altitude in 1,000's of feet indicated in white. This run of the forecast model tries to bring in some warmer air at the surface starting late Saturday morning. It takes temperatures above freezing (0°C/32°F) and hugs the warmer air at the surface through Sunday night. If this is the case, a lot of what falls would be very "wet" and probably have a hard time accumulating.

As far as where most of the snow should fall will be over southern Illinois. Parts of southeast Missouri as well as western Kentucky could see the snow too.

The temperature profile and the models depiction of all of the available moisture in the atmosphere are two reasons why I am not buying the heavier snowfall predictions just yet. Also, historically, clippers like this don't usually bring this much snow to this region.

While typing this up the National Weather Service in St. Louis has just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for several counties in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.


The advisory will be in effect 6:00pm Saturday evening through midnight Sunday night. In the advisory area they are calling for 2"-5" of snow.

____________________________________________

I have had a few people asking why I haven't been keeping the blog up-to-date over the last two days... Believe it or not I usually update the blog on my time off from work. It has been very busy the last couple of weeks in the weather department so I decided to give myself a couple of days off from taking time to update the blog. I wish there was a way to automate the process of going over all of the data, creating the graphics, and finally putting all my thoughts in to words. I usually spend an hour (if not more) going through the entire process.

Ok, enough defending myself on my own personal blog. haha

I will be working my usual shift at the station Saturday and Sunday so I'll have more on Heartland News both days but I will also be keeping the blog up to date (time permitting).

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Weekend System

I have been getting asked quite a bit about a big snow storm coming this weekend. Let me say here and now that this isn't going to be a big snow storm. Yes, we will see some rain and snow out of the system, but it won't be BIG.

Forecast models indicate an area of low pressure will developing over Wyoming/Montana Friday evening. The low will quickly dive southeast through the Plains and move over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee Sunday morning.

Out ahead of the low precipitation could develop Saturday evening. Ahead of the low temperatures should support rain. However, as the air saturates enough to get all the moisture to the ground there could be a little evaporative cooling taking place, so there could be a small amount of sleet/snow before changing back over to all rain.

Behind the surface low, cold air will usher in. As the cold air moves in, we will see the rain change over to snow.

The other thing that will happen behind the surface low is the upper low will move through. That could bring some additional "fluffy" snow during the day Sunday.

Traditionally, we don't get much out of these "clipper" type systems. There isn't that much moisture for this system to work with. The below 0z GFS for Cape Girardeau, Missouri is only spitting out 0.33" of liquid for the entire event.


All totaled the 0z GFS is indicating 2.6" of snow for Cape Girardeau Sunday evening through Monday morning. The 0z GFS is also putting out 4" for Farmington, Missouri.

Is this "The Storm" of the year? No. Could we get a little snow? Sure. Right now the areas that could see the most snow (I use the term "most" loosely) northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.

At this point I wouldn't get too worked up about this "storm" and ransack the grocery stores.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Exit Snow - Enter Wind

Snow is exiting the area. As the snow moves out wind will begin to pick-up this morning and will get even stronger through the day Wednesday.

Here is the view from the 0z NAM forecast model.


This is a slightly different look of the model data. This is showing wind speeds at different heights in the atmosphere. You can see the altitude by the white horizontal lines. They are measures of thousands of feet.

Generally the wind is always stronger the higher in the atmosphere you get. It is looking as though some of the stronger wind aloft will begin to make its way down towards the surface of the earth. That means it will be pretty windy, especially Wednesday.

Monday, February 8, 2010

It's a Grand Slam

Everyone seems to be a little down about all the winter weather/snow we've been getting. (If I only had a dime every time I hear "Is it summer yet?) I want to leave you on an "up" note tonight.

Get a Denny's Grand Slam breakfast for free tomorrow (Tuesday, February 9) from 6am to 2pm.

Sounds like a pretty good deal to me. I bet there will be some lines.

9:50pm Weather Update

Just went took a measurement off my snow board outside. The trusty Snoopy ruler measured 1.0" of snow.

Other amounts from around the area.

Missouri:
  • Benton 1.5"
  • Cape Girardeau 1.0"
  • Jackson 1.5"
  • New Madrid 2.5"
  • Sikeston 1.5"
Kentucky:
  • Calvert City 1.9"
  • Mayfield 2.0"
  • Murray 2.3"
  • Paducah 2.2"
Illinois:
  • Carterville 0.9"
  • Marion 1.5"
  • Metropolis 1.0"
New data coming in tonight appears to be cutting off the snow Tuesday morning. In Cape Girardeau for instance the NAM is cutting off the snow around 8:00am CT Tuesday. After that, dry air gets sucked in to the storm.

Winds will begin to pick-up Tuesday afternoon and will stick around through the day Wednesday.

7:00pm Weather Update

We are getting snow reports across the region. Here are some of the totals in to the National Weather Service.

Missouri:
  • Annapolis - 1.5"
  • Caruthersville - 2.0"
  • Dudley - 2.0"
  • Kennett - 1.0"
  • New Madrid - 1.1"
  • Poplar Bluff - 2.0"
Kentucky:
  • Water Valley - 2.0"
I am still thinking perhaps 3"-4" for Cape Girardeau and through the middle of the KFVS viewing area.

1:45pm Weather Update

It is looking more and more likely that we are going to see an accumulating snow for parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas.

Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in place across the Heartland.


Just like the storm from two weeks ago, it appears that the heaviest snow will fall over southern portions of the KFVS viewing area. In fact, the heaviest snow will probably fall just south of the viewing area.

Here is a look at some of the new data coming in this morning... This should be all snow falling. Temperature profiles are not supportive of any change over to rain in the atmospheric column.

Let's first look at snowfall totals from the 12z (6am CT) Canadian model:
  • Cape Girardeau, Missouri: 3.4"
  • Carbondale, Illinois: 2.6"
  • Doniphan, Missouri: 3.8"
  • Harrisburg, Illinois: 2.5"
  • Mt. Vernon, Illinois: 2.3"
  • Murray, Kentucky: 5.1"
  • Paducah, Kentucky: 3.9"
  • Sikeston, Missouri: 3.9"
  • Union City, Tennessee: 6.3"
Now let's take a look at data from NOAA's GFS and NAM models.

Some specific numbers from the morning's run of the GFS and NAM.
  • Cape Girardeau, Missouir: GFS = 3.7" NAM = 2.7"
  • Farmington, Missouri: GFS = 4.9" NAM = 3.0"
  • Paducah, Kentucky: GFS = 3.7" NAM = 5.1"
  • Jonesboro, Arkansas: GFS = 4.3" NAM = 10.2"
Cape Girardeau, Missouri:


Farmington, Missouir:


Paducah, Kentucky:


St. Louis, Missouri:


Evansville, Indiana:


Jonesboro, Arkansas:


As far as timing when the snow starts to arrive... It should start to move in to the southwestern corner of southeast Missouri around 3:00pm CT. The snow will continue to spread east/northeastward throughout the afternoon and evening. Snow should be near the Mississippi River around 6:00pm CT.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

10:20pm Weather Update

I'm trying to put the blinders on and not think too much about the Super Bowl. (Grr.... Stupid onside kick...) Anyway, lets talk some weather.

We've got some of the white stuff coming our way. Right now it is looking like we will be dealing with snow with the exception of western Kentucky that might be a mix of rain and snow.

New data coming in tonight is indicating that the highest snow numbers will fall somewhere between Cape Girardeau, Missouri and Jonesboro, Arkansas.

Here is the latest snowfall output from the 0z NAM forecast model. Remember that this is NOT our forecast. It is simply data coming straight from the forecast model.


We can break it down a little more and take a look at specific points in a program called BUFKIT. Before the requests start coming in, there are only specific points available to look at. I didn't decide the specific points, NOAA did.

Here is the 0z NAM's look at Cape Girardeau.

You can see that the model is keeping everything all snow. It begins the precipitation Monday afternoon.
Specifically for Cape Girardeau the 0z NAM is suggesting 2.6" of snow.

Here is the same model run for Jonesboro, Arkansas.


It brings the heaviest snow in late Monday afternoon/evening. Specifically for Jonesboro the 0z NAM is indicating 10.3" of snow.

This is just one model of several we look at. I'll have more on the winter storm tomorrow. Stay tuned...

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