Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Winter Storm Update: Wednesday Data Update

I apologize for the lack of posts yesterday. I am still enroute back home after spending a couple of days in Biloxi, Mississippi at a Digital Media Conference with KFVS' parent company, Raycom Media.

I am going over some information from last night's 0z run (6pm CT) and the 6z (12am) run of the models. Snowfall amounts still look impressive for parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

First of all, for most of the area we are talking about ALL snow. Here is the 0z GFS run for Cape Girardeau. It is showing the atmosphere being supportive of all snow starting around 7pm CT Thursday. That being said, there could be a little sleet at the onset.

The above image is using a program called BUFKIT. BUFKIT is great because it allows for a visualization of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, there are only specific data points available for the BUFKIT in the KFVS viewing area (Cape Girardeau, Farmington, and Paducah). This is the reason why I haven't been giving any data for southern Illinois. There isn't data available. Don't blame me. Blame NOAA. :)

Some of the snowfall totals from the GFS through BUFKIT:
  • Cape Girardeau, Missouri: 10.4"
  • Evansville, Indiana: 4.8"
  • Farmington, Missouri: 11"
  • Jonesboro, Arkansas: 9"
  • Paducah, Kentucky: 9.2"
  • St. Louis, Missouri: 5.6"

Here is a different look at the 6z run of the GFS. The map is displaying snowfall totals through 6am CT Saturday.

Finally, the NAM forecast model is starting to come in line with the snow, albeit not as agressive as the GFS. Here is the 6z run of the NAM's depiction of snowfall amounts.

Finally, here is another map I have just come across. This is displaying the 0z run of the GFS for the KFVS viewing area.

As you can see, the models are suggesting amounts anywhere from 2" to up to 12" of snow across the region. Notice there is a little variance from the 6z run of the same model as the 6z run (US map earlier in post) has the heavy 10"-12" band of snow a little further east.

PLEASE keep in mind the above numbers are straight from the model. These numbers are NOT the forecast amounts. As soon as my snow forecast is finished, I'll be sure to have it on Heartland News on KFVS and here on the blog. I will be back at work this afternoon and I am filling in for Bob Reeves tonight on Heartland News.

Special thanks to Bob Evans for the use of their free wifi. I've been sitting here typing up the blog while eating breakfast before finally getting home.


Anonymous said...

As long as it's not ice here in parma, mo. I can handle a good snow fall. The trees here still haven't recovered from all the ice from a year ago. Thank you for the blog john I check it daily.

Anonymous said...

John, What about Chesterfield, Missouri?!?!?! Its so rude you haven't given any updates for here! Love, your biggest fan.

Anonymous said...

It's so "rude" of him not to give you any updates about Chesterfield Missouri???? Why don't you turn to Channels 2, 4, and 5 in St. Louis for that information. Duh!

Anonymous said...

pretty sure that was an inside joke. Thanks for giving us this info, John!

Anonymous said...

It definitely was an inside joke, wasn't at all serious. Obviously I do watch St. Louis stations.

Anonymous said...
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snowman said...

John, i know that they are just models, but a lot of your models are showing 10-11 inches in cape girardeau, but on the news they are saying maybe 2 inches. Why is there such a big difference?

Anonymous said...

Looking at the latest models I am seeing a chance of this thing shearing once it hits the Mississippi River. Think this is an issue or are the models just having convective feedback issues? Also, the latest GFS shows us getting up to 10 inches. Latest NAM shows less than that. What's your take on this? Also, your counterparts are staying a bit conservative, for good reason maybe?

Anonymous said...

John most of the models are trending more north than previous.If this slows down and goes north than would that bring totals up!!

Anonymous said...

If it heads more north it would definitely bring up totals. Something to the order of up to a foot in Cape Girardeau. That's if the precip doesn't shear out. There's also some pretty nice back building of precip on the models. That could spell some pretty hefty snow totals for SEMO, West KY, and Southern IL. I hope John addresses this on evening broadcast.

Anonymous said...

Hey John, have you ever thought you yourself I'm either very very popular (snow, sun, etc) or very very unpopular (ice, cold, rain) haha

I'm a huge weather person, hate seeing the upside down storm not giving Williamson County IL anything measurable. While there is time, I'm afraid we'll be getting up for school come Friday. lol

Anonymous said...

according to these models, it is showing 4-5 inches for mt vernon area.On the weather at 12:00 and this morning it showed hardly none for Mt Vernon area.


Anonymous said...

If we end up getting more than nothing. Shouldn't they issue the northern counties. Mt Vernon, franklin ect. in the watch area?