Thursday, January 28, 2010

Models Shaking Hands

I'm still going over the data with my own methods for forecast snowfall amounts. Here is what the two computer models (GFS & NAM) are showing from this morning's runs.

GFS:


NAM:


They are starting to come in line with each other.

Snowfall amounts will be heaviest over the southern third of the KFVS viewing area. I don't think it is out of the question that we could see a 13" snowfall report before this storm is over. Stay tuned...

8 comments:

John, Explain to me why you canot forecast snowfall amounts for the models, if they are showing the samw amounts. I am confused as to why. Would you please be willing to explain.

why does this model show 8-10 inches for Murphysboro - but the forecast on kfvs12 said light snow2-4. Which is closest to be accurate? thanks.

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IT TAKES TO GET ALL THE WEATHER PREDICTIONS, BUT, IT DOES SEEM TO TAKE A LOT OF TIME FOR YOU. THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK.

Thank you for your efforts in forecasting the snow totals. I am also wondering the same question as anonymous from 1:42pm. Can you explain how the GFS and NAM models differ from your actual snowfall predictions?

How much longer until your next posting? It seems to take a really long time.

I would assume that the forecast models do not take into account precip that does not make it to the ground because it is dried up by the dry air at the start of the event. Just an thought if no one answers.

wondering the same thing as others. why does both of the models predict higher than what's forecasted. example: DuQuoin is forecasted by both models to be in the area of 6 inches. most media weather has about 1-2 inches. agree with some of it evaporting before reaching the ground but hard to believe that big a difference. please answer..Thanks for your postings.

Thank you! It does seem like a lot of work, we appreciate it!!!

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