Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Winter Storm Looking Likely

Just as the title of this post says, a major winter storm is looking more likely Thursday and Friday for parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

I am looking over new data just in from the night runs of NOAA's global forecast model (GFS). If I were to have to make a snow forecast with the data in hand right now, I would have to say that the heaviest band of snow could be setting up along a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri and Paducah, Kentucky. Snow will also be north and south of that line. Snow could even be falling from eastern Arkansas in to western Tennessee.

For Cape Girardeau, the precipitation type looks to be all snow. The amount of precipitation is pretty impressive. The GFS pumps out 0.82" of liquid. Even on a 10:1 ratio would bring the snowfall amount to 8.2" of snow. Using a couple of different methods shows that the snow ratio could be between 10:1 to 17:1. The ratio could be going up through the event as the cold air moves in. Overall, tonight's GFS run puts down 11.4" of snow. That's a decent amount. ;)

As I mentioned, it looks like it will be snow south of the area as well. In Jonesboro, Arkansas it looks like it will start out as rain. Then mixing with perhaps an hour or two of freezing rain (1/4"?). Then it changes over to all snow. Quite a bit of snow in Jonesboro too. Perhaps around 8.7".

Here are some of the other model's snowfall amounts.

  • Evansville, Indiana: 7.8"
  • Farmington, Missouri: 11.1"
  • Louisville, Kentucky: 7.9"
  • Paducah, Kentucky: 13.5"
  • St. Louis, Missouri: 0"

It appears that there will be a pretty sharp cut-off of the snow on the northern edge of the band.

Keep in mind the amounts mentioned above are not forecast amounts. These are numbers coming straight from the computer model. We will continue to be going over the weather data over the next 60-72 hours.

Bottom line... How much snow is still in question. As of right now, it appears that the biggest threat for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky will be snow.


Anonymous said...

In your next "how much may you get" blog can you include the Carbondale/Marion/Herrin (one of those) IL in it please :)


John Dissauer said...

Unfortunately, it is a little more difficult to put some of the southern Illinois information on the blog. A lot of the raw data I look isn't available for any locations in southern Illinois. That is decided by the National Weather Service/NOAA.

I have more data available to me when I am at the station. That is how we are able to put up all of the Illinois data.

When available, I will put up Illinois data on my blog. I often times update the blog from home (or on the road).

Anonymous said...

Thanks John! I know you are working overtime watching the storm and I do appreciate it :)

I'll be watching to see what you think about So. IL once you are back at the station.

Anonymous said...

In your next "how much you may get" blog can you inculde the bootheel region? (kennett for example), thanks john, il appreciate it

Anonymous said...

They are showing on the weather channel that st louis south and east would be in the snow band for Friday. I live in Mt Vernon, how much if any do you think we will have? Do you think the snow line will be far north?

Anonymous said...

how much snow for perryville mo