Friday, January 15, 2010

The Week at a Glance

I was just looking at some data for the next week. It looks as though temperatures will go back towards normal if not slightly above normal.

Here is the 12z GFS model's depiction for Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

Reminder: Time reads from right to left. Red line is air temperature at surface. Green bars indicate rain. Grey blocks indicate clouds.

All of the models are bringing rain in to southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky for the weekend. This run of the GFS is putting down around 0.2" of rain. As you can see, it brings the rain in Saturday evening and moves it our early Sunday.

I want you to look towards the end of the time line (left side). Notice the temperatures? It is showing a high temperature in the middle 50's. Not indicated on the above graphic is what could be coming for the following couple of days. One of the models is hinting at a decent storm moving through the central United States. Not so much of a snow or ice storm, but perhaps thunderstorms.

Here is a look at the 300mb chart. This shows where the jet stream is located.

The model is hinting at a nice jet streak shooting up through Arkansas and Missouri. To the southeast of the jet streak, temperatures would most likely warm in to the 50's (and 60's south). Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico would be streamed up ahead of the storm. Put all of those ingredients together and we could be talking about a severe weather outbreak for someone from the middle Mississippi River Valley to the Gulf Coast.

This is still 240 hours away so a lot will likely change between now and then. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this storm doesn't develop. However, it is something to keep an eye on as it isn't unusual for us to see thunderstorms in January or February.

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