I'm just coming off my weekend. (Since I work a Saturday-Wednesday work week, my Saturday/Sunday is Thursday/Friday.) Usually on Saturday mornings I get up in the morning and take a quick glance at what the computer models are hinting at for the next couple of days.
When making my forecast, I usually look at a minimum 5 computer models. For my quick glance this morning I took a look at two. This is the GFS model (I'm not always a fan of this one.)
When looking at the model, the time runs from right to left. (Sorry, I didn't make the program!) Notice how it brings in freezing rain for Tuesdsay-Wednesday. The GFS tries to drop down around 1" of the freezing rain. That would spell a mess for us. Remember last February? Yikes!
This is the NAM model. I use this one much more. Although, it hasn't handled things well this winter.
Notice this model is indicating it as more of a sleet issue. And not a very heavy sleet either. On or the order of .2".
It could come down to a a degree or two over a 1,000-2,000 foot area overhead. That is how these things work out around here. The models will flip-flop around some as we get closer to the event (which is normal).
Personally, I would rather see a nice snow storm out of this. We haven't had a measurable snow this winter. Plus, snow storms are easier to forecast than sleet/ice storms.
I should have been able to guess this earlier this month. Bob Reeves is off Monday-Wednesday and I am filling in for him. Typically, when he takes off we have some kind of weather event. Be it winter storm (think Christmas '04) or severe thunderstorms/tornadoes.
As I like to say. Stay tuned...
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