Thursday, February 11, 2010

Weekend System

I have been getting asked quite a bit about a big snow storm coming this weekend. Let me say here and now that this isn't going to be a big snow storm. Yes, we will see some rain and snow out of the system, but it won't be BIG.

Forecast models indicate an area of low pressure will developing over Wyoming/Montana Friday evening. The low will quickly dive southeast through the Plains and move over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee Sunday morning.

Out ahead of the low precipitation could develop Saturday evening. Ahead of the low temperatures should support rain. However, as the air saturates enough to get all the moisture to the ground there could be a little evaporative cooling taking place, so there could be a small amount of sleet/snow before changing back over to all rain.

Behind the surface low, cold air will usher in. As the cold air moves in, we will see the rain change over to snow.

The other thing that will happen behind the surface low is the upper low will move through. That could bring some additional "fluffy" snow during the day Sunday.

Traditionally, we don't get much out of these "clipper" type systems. There isn't that much moisture for this system to work with. The below 0z GFS for Cape Girardeau, Missouri is only spitting out 0.33" of liquid for the entire event.

All totaled the 0z GFS is indicating 2.6" of snow for Cape Girardeau Sunday evening through Monday morning. The 0z GFS is also putting out 4" for Farmington, Missouri.

Is this "The Storm" of the year? No. Could we get a little snow? Sure. Right now the areas that could see the most snow (I use the term "most" loosely) northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.

At this point I wouldn't get too worked up about this "storm" and ransack the grocery stores.


Anonymous said...

I'm going to St. Louis Sunday through Monday. What type of snow could I see there?

Anonymous said...