Thursday, February 18, 2010

Noon Update: Messy Weekend?

Everyone wants to know what is going on with the weather this weekend. If you know, shoot me an email. haha

Seriously, models have been a little all over the place with the two systems that will swing through. The first arriving Friday night through Saturday morning and the second coming in Sunday night. Many of the models try to push in slightly warmer air as the storm moves in to southeast Missouri. So right now, everything seems to point at mainly rain for the majority of the KFVS viewing area. However, as you look at the northern third of the area there could be a mix of rain, sleet, and a little snow.

Here is a look at this morning's NAM's output of snowfall amounts through 84 hours (Sunday afternoon).

Just beyond the reach of the NAM is the Sunday night system. This one looks to be the more troublesome of the two systems as it could bring some snow to parts of the area.

Again, models are all over the board. The GFS brings the warmer air north and keeps the KFVS viewing area mainly rain.

Here is a look at the GFS snowfall totals through 120 hours.

It is interesting to take a look at some other models with the Sunday storm. Today I'll give you a look at the Canadian model and the Japanese model.

First here is the Canadian model.

The image (above) shows what is going at 6pm CT Sunday. This looks like a typical winter storm for this region. The rain/snow line is the pink line and splits this area in two. North of the line would be snow. South of the line would be rain. And somewhere along the line would be a mix.

This image (above) shows what is going on at 12am CT Monday. You can see the rain/snow line sliding south indicating that colder air is moving in on the back side of the storm.

Here is the Japanese model.

The above image shows the model data at 6am CT Sunday. Take a look at where the rain/snow line is located. It is much further north and north of the storm. As warm air is drawn north on southerly winds ahead of the storm it would keep the moisture as rain. Perhaps on the backside of the storm there could be some change over, but this model still keeps the cold air a bit further north on the backside of the storm.

So what is the bottom line? It is too early to tell exactly what type of precipitation is going to fall with the Sunday/Monday morning storm. Hopefully the models will start to come in to better agreement as we get closer to the storm.

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