This update is for all my friends and family back in Indiana. I have been getting several questions about what is going to hit Indianapolis area.
There are going to be two storms to worry about. The first comes this evening/Friday. The second comes Monday/Tuesday.
Primarily, both events should be all snow. That being said, on the leading edge of the first storm it could start out as cold rain and/or a little freezing rain. Don't get too concerned about the freezing rain prospects as models indicate we are talking less than 0.1".
Here is an overview look at the data straight from last night's run of NOAA's global forecast model.
If you are new to the blog and not familiar with the image above time reads from right to left. Along the bottom times are listed in Indiana time and UTC. The red line indicates air temperature at the surface. Look to the far right legend and you will see the air temperatures that relate to the line. The green vertical bars indicate rain. Blue vertical bars indicate snow. Red vertical bars indicate freezing rain. The grey blotches in the background are clouds with height.
The above model has done a pretty good job with winter storms this year. It is putting down 4" of snow for Indianapolis. Another model, the NAM, is suggesting 7.5". Usually I am a fan of the NAM, but it does not have the best track record this year.
Here is another look at the data for Indianapolis. This pulls both models in to one view. It also lets you see the previous two runs of each model. Finally, the green line is what the NWS is forecasting.
Will there be snow on the ground by Saturday? Yes. Is it the "storm of the year" as predicted by some in Indianapolis? No.
I would be a bit more concerned about the event Monday/Tuesday. The global forecast model is hinting at a 8"-10" snow.
Keep in mind the above numbers are NOT my forecast. They are numbers straight from a computer model.