Wednesday, February 3, 2010

4:40pm Weather Update

All eyes are on two storms lining up to the west. The first will impact the area Friday. The second will impact the area Sunday night through Tuesday morning.

All models continue to keep warm air in place over the area Friday. Here is the Wednesday morning run of the NAM model.

The yellow lines indicate temperatures at given times/altitudes. Notice that we don't go below zero anywhere in the lower 5,000 feet. At times we are near the freezing mark, but generally it appears to be all liquid.

Here is another look at the same model with the precipitation type.

Green vertical bars indicate rain. Blue vertical bars indicate snow. Looking at the added data in the above image shows the model keeps everything mainly rain with a change over to snow late. The amount of snow is small (1/2" or less).

Looking to Monday... Models are indicating this could be the bigger of the two storms. Cold air seems to be in place so we would be talking mainly all snow for the northern half of the area.

Here is a look at the 12z GFS for Cape Girardeau.

Running the numbers straight from the model brings down 10" of snow.

This is still several days away and I am sure the model will flip around a few dozen times between now and then.

Stay tuned...

1 comment:

Sami said...

IS the second storm looking like a signaficant winter storm for the bootheel.. say around Malden????, well from what the models are showing currently????