Saturday, February 13, 2010

Afternoon Data

This will be a quick post/update. Finally, all of the afternoon data is in from the computer models. At this point in the game I am looking more for trends amongst the models than anything else. Both the GFS and the NAM afternoon model runs seem to be taking the precip a little further north.

Here is the 18z NAM run. Snow accumulations through Monday night.

Here is the 18z GFS run. Snow accumulations through Monday night.

I should say that I normally don't give a lot of stock in the 6z/18z runs of the computer models. When they ingest data to start the modeling process, they do not include upper-air data in the initialization.

To contrast this information one of our 12km forecast model, the RPM, tries to drop even more snow across the area. It is suggesting a 2"- 7.5" snow across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. haha I'm not buying this one at all. This model likes to flip flop more than a dead fish on the beach.

I am still feeling pretty good with my snow forecast from earlier today. Although, if the north trend continues in the models, it could be a little less than forecast.

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