Here is a breakdown of how much liquid there is to work with across central Indiana from four different models.
- NOAA's global forecast model: 0.43" (morning data)
- United Kingdom's forecast model: 0.67" (new data)
- NOAA's regional forecast model: 1.00" (new data)
- Canadian Meteorological Agency's forecast model: 0.82" (new data)
Which model is correct at this point? It is hard to tell. (I am glad I am not on-air in Indy having to forecast this one.) I am thinking that the snowfall numbers I mentioned earlier need to be adjusted up some.
It appears that for central Indiana tomorrow morning will start out with a freezing rain/sleet mix (ice should be no more than 0.1" and more likely less than 0.05"). Then a change over to snow. Some of the heaviest snow could fall during lunch hour (11am-2pm ET). Snow will likely continue through the evening and in to Saturday morning.
Overall, the heaviest snow should be in east-central Indiana. Perhaps the heavy snow band setting up NW of Indianapolis from Lafayette to south of Kokomo to Anderson and over to Dayton. That band can easily shift north/south depending on the track of the storm.