Thursday, February 4, 2010

Dissenting Opinions

For the Indiana folks.... Snow forecast for Friday through Saturday is looking a bit more difficult. New data coming in is wetter than other data was showing 12 hours ago.

Here is a breakdown of how much liquid there is to work with across central Indiana from four different models.
  • NOAA's global forecast model: 0.43" (morning data)
  • United Kingdom's forecast model: 0.67" (new data)
  • NOAA's regional forecast model: 1.00" (new data)
  • Canadian Meteorological Agency's forecast model: 0.82" (new data)
In a general sense you can look at a 10:1 snow to rain ratio. During the Friday/Saturday storm there will be times when it will be coming down at a 8:1 ratio and other times when it could be as high as a 12:1 ratio.

Which model is correct at this point? It is hard to tell. (I am glad I am not on-air in Indy having to forecast this one.) I am thinking that the snowfall numbers I mentioned earlier need to be adjusted up some.

It appears that for central Indiana tomorrow morning will start out with a freezing rain/sleet mix (ice should be no more than 0.1" and more likely less than 0.05"). Then a change over to snow. Some of the heaviest snow could fall during lunch hour (11am-2pm ET). Snow will likely continue through the evening and in to Saturday morning.

Overall, the heaviest snow should be in east-central Indiana. Perhaps the heavy snow band setting up NW of Indianapolis from Lafayette to south of Kokomo to Anderson and over to Dayton. That band can easily shift north/south depending on the track of the storm.

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