Friday, February 19, 2010

Update: Weekend Weather Outlook

The models continue to indicate "warm" air will be in place for the upcoming rounds of storms coming through this weekend. This means that for most of us we will be mainly dealing with rain.

Take a look at the snowfall accumulations maps from this morning's GFS and NAM runs. Notice how the snow areas are well north of the region.

GFS (above)

NAM (above)

The Canadian model also keeps us warm. The below image from the Canadian model shows what could be going on Sunday evening. Remember the pink line is roughly the rain/snow line.

The Japanese model (below) is still trying to bring the storm further south compared to the other models. If the JMA is correct there could be an accumulating snow over the northwestern third Monday.

I should mention that the Canadian is hinting at some change over to some light snow on the backside of the system. However, the model is much drier compared to the JMA.

Since it appears we won't be dealing with much snow over the next couple of days, it looks like we will be dealing with rain instead. Some of the rain could be heavy. Here is a look at the NAM's quantitative precipitation forecast (how much rain could fall) over the next 84 hours.

It is showing that we could see anywhere from 0.50" to over 1" of rain during that time period. Some rain wouldn't be a bad thing. For the year we are 2.25" below normal.

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