Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Last New Numbers Tonight 1/18

The last set of numbers I have been looking for are in from NOAA's Global forecast model.

Similar to the NAM numbers from earlier, lets look at how much liquid the model is generating for Thursday's storm for specific points across the area.
  • Cape Girardeau, Mo - 0.25"
  • Evansville, In - 0.37"
  • Farmington, Mo - 0.37"
  • Indianapolis, In - 0.25"
  • Paducah, Ky - 0.23"
  • St. Louis, Mo - 0.40"
The GFS, much like the NAM, is suggesting snow/liquid ratio's will be high... 12:1 to as high as 19:1. I am still not completely sold on the high end ratios just yet, but the models have been very consistent indicating higher ratios partly due to the cold air expected to be in place.

I will do a little math similar to what I've done on the other computer model runs from earlier today. I'll put the basic 10:1 ratio, ratios that I think we could see and the high end ratio the model is suggesting (xx:1).
(City - Liquid) | 10:1 | 12:1 | 15:1 | xx:1
  • Cape Girardeau, Mo - 0.25" | 2.5" | 3" | 3.8"
  • Evansville, In - 0.37" | 3.7" | 4.4" | 5.5"
  • Farmington, Mo - 0.37" | 3.7" | 4.4" | 5.5" | 6.3"
  • Indianapolis, In - 0.25" | 2.5" | 3" | 3.8" | 4.5"
  • Paducah, Ky - 0.23" | 2.3" | 2.8" | 3.5"
  • St. Louis, Mo - 0.40" | 4" | 4.8" | 6" | 7.2"
Seeing the GFS come in with slightly higher numbers gives me a little more confidence that the numbers might be a little higher. Everything is still fitting within the range I mentioned in my previous post and I still think a heavy band will set up somewhere just to the north of the KFVS viewing area.

One thing to note about the above numbers and the storm in general... The storm is still stuck up in the Rocky Mountains. It hasn't developed yet. We won't start to see any signs of the storm until late Wednesday morning. If you tune in to Heartland News at Noon on KFVS12 you will most likely see snow breaking out over western Nebraska. If we see the radars starting to light up over the Plains, then we know everything is on schedule.

Over the years I have seen a number of storms look good on paper as they have come off the Pacific Coast. Then they go in to the Rockies and they get ripped apart and don't come out like the models were projecting.

Right now, I would say the likelihood of schools calling off classes Thursday (if not going home early) and Friday is increasing. Stay tuned...

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