Wednesday, January 19, 2011

10:45pm Weather Update 1/19

Data seems to be coming in slow tonight. That always seems to be the case when you are on the cusp of the storm beginning.

The new run of the NAM (0z) is in and I am not looking in to it much. Toss it to the garbage. I think it's an outlier. This run of the forecast model is causing a lot of meteorologists to scramble tonight because it has come in a LOT drier for the majority of the KFVS viewing area. It does keep the bulk of the snow north along the I-70 corridor including St. Louis. It is suggesting 6" to 7" of snow for St. Louis (which I can buy).

The 3z (9pm CT) run of the Rapid Update Cycle model is in and is putting down the following snowfall totals through 3pm CT Thursday. (Reminder, the snow won't end in the KFVS viewing area until late afternoon/early evening Thursday.)
  • Cape Girardeau, Mo - 2.1"
  • Evansville, In - 2.4"
  • Farmington, Mo - 1.9"
  • Jonesboro, Ar - 1.7"
  • Indianapolis, In - 3.2"
  • Paducah, Ky - 1.4"
  • St. Louis, Mo - 6.2"
To be honest, I am not a big fan of the RUC model but it is a set of data to look at. ;) The reason the model is only showing data through 3pm CT Thursday is because the model only looks at the next 12 hours. Because of the short period of time it is looking over it can be higher resolution and the model can be run every hour.

NOAA's global forecast model is far enough in I can look at the next 48 hours (through 6pm CT Friday). Here is a look at the snow accumulation chart from the GFS.

Click the map to see a larger version.

I have not changed any of my thinking for the snow forecast over the KFVS viewing area. I am going to make a slight adjustment to the St. Louis forecast. (The numbers are going to go up a little.)

As previously posted:

KFVS Viewing Area: Generally 2" to 4" of snow. I think we could get a few 5"+ amounts in northern parts of the KFVS viewing area (St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, Randolph, Washington (IL), Jefferson and Wayne (IL)). An isolated 6" isn't out of the question. Snow over the southern counties (northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee) could see 1" to 2".

The bulk of the snow will start early Thursday morning and end Thursday afternoon lasting around 10-11 hours.

St. Louis: Snow will start later this evening and last through late morning Thursday. I am thinking 4"to 7" will be possible in the St. Louis metro area.

Central Indiana: Areas around the Indianapolis metro area will be 3" to 5" with the lower amounts on the northside. The further south from Indianapolis the higher the amounts will be. Places like Columbus, Bloomington and Seymour could see 3" to 6".

I have also been getting a lot of people asking, "Where's the snow you've been talking about?" All along I've been saying the accumulating snow won't arrive until Thursday morning. The snow will accumulate through the day and then move out by late afternoon/early evening. In other words, don't be surprised if you wake-up and there is no snow on the ground. Give it time...

11:30pm UPDATE: The numbers from the 0z GFS are in. Here are the specific liquid and snow ratios for specific locations across the region.

(City - Liquid) | 10:1 | 13:1 | 15:1 | 17:1 | 18:1
  • Cape Girardeau, Mo - 0.19" | 1.9" | 2.5" | 2.8"
  • Evansville, In - 0.26" | 2.6" | 3.4"
  • Farmington, Mo - 0.20" | 2.0" | 2.6" | 3" | 3.4"*
  • Jonesboro, Ar - 0.19" | 1.9" | 2.1"*
  • Indianapolis, In - 0.22" | 2.2" | 2.8" | 3.3" | 3.7" | 4"
  • Paducah, Ky - 0.20" | 2" | 2.6"
  • St. Louis, Mo - 0.38" | 3.8" | 4.9" | 5.7" | 6.5" | 6.8"
*The ratio has been slightly altered to better reflect what the computer model was indicating.

I still feel good about my current forecast.


Jlynn said...

Love the Blog!

Dawn said...

I love your blog, too !! :) Keep it up !! :) I like when you add your little bits like you did to your last paragraph !! :) LOL You aren't enjoying your 'vacation' !! :)