Saturday, January 22, 2011

10:25pm Weather Update 1/22

It has been interesting this afternoon trying to figure out what this Alberta Clipper is going to do for the KFVS viewing area Sunday and Monday.

From day one this has not looked like a big deal. Maybe a couple of inches and that is it. Through the day today each run of the computer models have backed off the amount of moisture available for snow. Tonight's 0z data continues that trend.

So far just a handful of models are in, the NAM, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the RPM. The NAM has completely taken out snow for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The RUC is also keeping the snow out. (However, it is keeping 2" of snow for St. Louis through 2pm CT Sunday.)

Keep in mind the NAM has performed horribly all winter and the RUC is not one of my favorite models.

The 0z RPM is backing off on the snow totals through Sunday evening indicating only 0.5" to 0.8" of snow for the KFVS viewing area.

This mornings European forecast agency's model, the Canadian forecast agency's model, the United Kingdom agency's forecast model, and the Japanese forecast agency's forecast model were going light with the amount of moisture. Only indicating 0.04" to 0.12". Models were indicating a 10:1 to 13:1 snow to water ratio that would be a 0.4" to 1.5" snow.

NOAA's Global forecast model was the most aggressive of all the models I looked at this morning indicating 0.18" to 0.26" of liquid. That would be a 1.8" to 3.4" snow.

I could be wrong, but I am just not buying the higher amounts yet. My gut is telling me we could get a dusting to 1.5" at the most over the KFVS viewing area through Monday morning.

Let me say again, this isn't going to be a major snow storm. Oftentimes these minor little "wrinkles" are hard to forecast.

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