Saturday, December 12, 2009

A White Christmas?

The favorite questions to the weather department lately are:

  1. Is it going to snow?
  2. Are we going to have a white Christmas?
Answers:
1. Yes, it is going to snow... At some point this winter I think it is a safe bet. :) Oh, you are asking about the short term. I don't see any snow in our future over the next 7 days.

2. We are just now getting to the point where some of the longest long-range computer model forecasts are capturing the Christmas day time frame. As of this writing, the prospects for a white Christmas aren't looking very good. I am not seeing any significant winter storms in the forecast model December 22 through December 28.*

*Keep in mind this is a long range forecast model which doesn't have the ability to detect minute details that could evolve in to a winter storm.

Christmas weather factoids:

White Christmas:
  • According to the National Weather Service the historical frequency of a white Christmas is around 15% for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.
  • The frequency of a white Christmas for northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas is around 6%-7%.
  • The frequency of a white Christmas for central Indiana is around 20%-25%.
  • The last time the southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky area had a white Christmas was 2004. That is when a record snowstorm hit the region dropping 10" of snow and dropping temperatures as cool as -10° at the Cape Girardeau airport.
The average high/low temperature for Christmas:
  • Cape Girardeau, MO 42°/26°
  • Carbondale, IL 41°/23°
  • Paducah, KY 44°/25°

2 comments:

Donna wants lots of snow for christmas then by the end of december it all go away and spring to get here.

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