- Is it going to snow?
- Are we going to have a white Christmas?
1. Yes, it is going to snow... At some point this winter I think it is a safe bet. :) Oh, you are asking about the short term. I don't see any snow in our future over the next 7 days.
2. We are just now getting to the point where some of the longest long-range computer model forecasts are capturing the Christmas day time frame. As of this writing, the prospects for a white Christmas aren't looking very good. I am not seeing any significant winter storms in the forecast model December 22 through December 28.*
*Keep in mind this is a long range forecast model which doesn't have the ability to detect minute details that could evolve in to a winter storm.
Christmas weather factoids:
- According to the National Weather Service the historical frequency of a white Christmas is around 15% for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.
- The frequency of a white Christmas for northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas is around 6%-7%.
- The frequency of a white Christmas for central Indiana is around 20%-25%.
- The last time the southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky area had a white Christmas was 2004. That is when a record snowstorm hit the region dropping 10" of snow and dropping temperatures as cool as -10° at the Cape Girardeau airport.
- Cape Girardeau, MO 42°/26°
- Carbondale, IL 41°/23°
- Paducah, KY 44°/25°