Why are curveballs being thrown in December? It isn't supposed to happen in late innings like this!
The 0z runs of the NAM and the GFS are in tonight. They are "interesting" to say the least.
For days the models have been locked in on a track taking the storm up the western side of Missouri keeping southeast Missouri (and eastward) all rain. Tonight's runs have the track further east. So much further east it brings the low over the top of southeast Missouri Thursday night.
If the new solutions are to be believed, southeast Missouri would still be mainly rain, BUT there could be some brief snow early Saturday morning (12am-6am). Straight from the models tonight, there could be an accumulating snow over the Ozarks of southeast Missouri. Or basically locations on a slightly higher elevation.
I have not totally bought in to this idea yet. This is just one run, although multiple models have come to the same solution on the same run. The last 12-15 runs of the models have taken the western solution. However, as the storm is finally developing over the western Plains, the models are finally getting a chance to sample "real" data.
I would like to see the eastern track in another run and not just the 6z (12am) run. It would need to be tomorrow morning's run that ingests upper-air data.
I am now passing the buck, I mean torch, on to Brian and Laura. They will handle the rest of your flight on board the "Christmas Even Storm '09" ride.
Merry Christmas to all...