Friday, December 18, 2009

Christmas Eve Storm

A quick update regarding a possible Christmas Eve Storm...

Computer models are showing a chance of a storm moving through the central US Wednesday, December 23 and Thursday, December 24. The storm has yet to make its way onshore in the US. Once the storm moves onshore, the models should get a better handle on the storm. The storm is forecast to move in to the northwest coast Sunday.

Here is a look at NOAA's global forecast model 4-panel chart for 6pm CT Thursday, December 24.

Initial thought is that we will start out as rain Wednesday. Temperatures will start out way too warm for snow. However, as the storm passes, colder air will get wrapped in behind the storm. This would be a scenerio of rain changing to snow. Some snow accumulation is possible Christmas Eve in to Christmas Day.

Noteworthy: The models seem to be bringing in a lot of moisture from the south with the storm. The jet stream will be going all the way down to the gulf and tapping in to the Gulf of Mexico moisture. Think of the jet stream as a train just bringing the moisture up.

Due to the abundance in moisture, people planning on traveling north to St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis on Christmas Eve will want to pay close attention to the forecast this week. I am sure the forecast will be fluctuating a bit day-to-day as more data becomes available.

And before you ask, it is way too early to be talking about snowfall amounts. ;)

Side note: I should probably bet on the fact we will end up with some kind of storm this week. Bob Reeves is taking the week off and the last couple years when he takes a week off we end up with some kind of a storm.
  • Remember last January's ice storm? He was off.
  • Remember the "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak? He was off.
  • Remember December 22, 2004? Major snow storm with blizzard conditions. He was off.
We shall see...


Connie said...

Okay. No more days off for Bob.

Holly said...

Think snow, snow, snow. My family would love to have a white Christmas!