Sunday, December 13, 2009

Get Out The Ironing Board - There's a Wrinkle

For all of you snow lovers... The overnight computer models are throwing a wrinkle in the atmosphere for Friday night/Saturday morning.

A couple of the models, the European and NOAA's global forecast model, are developing a small storm in the Midwest that could bring a rain and/or snow mix to the region.

Here is what the models are showing:

First a look at the European weather forecast model. This is a snapshot of 6pm CT Saturday. It develops a surface low over northern Illinois and sucks down the cold air on the backside. This would tend to be more of a rain maker for the area.

Now a look at the GFS model. This is a look at the 850mb chart for 6pm CT Saturday. This model develops the surface low southeast of the area and develops the 850mb low over Memphis, TN. This could be more of an initial rain quickly changing over to snow setup.

It is very common to see storms develop at long range and then see them go away. However, it is interesting to note that two models hint at a developing storm at the same time period.

Is the wrinkle just a glitch in the model runs or are they on to something? Stay tuned...

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