Starting February with Snow & Ice

There has been a lot of talk in the one to two weeks about a colossal storm heading for the Midwest this week.  A lot of the talk and hype has been extremely irresponsible, but that is a discussion for a different day.  It does appear a storm will impact the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

One of the reasons I have been relatively quiet about the storm and its potential is due to the many different solutions computer models were coming up with.  Some had it as a HUGE ice storm, others as a HUGE snow storm and most had it somewhere in between.

Patience is a virtue sometimes when it comes to weather forecasting.  Let the models battle it out for a while and then start to come up with a somewhat unified solution to what the storm could do.

This is a storm that is going to develop over far southern New Mexico, western Texas and northern Mexico.  As it matures, moisture will become plentiful as it taps in to the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.

Here is a solution the latest run of NOAA's Global Forecast model has come up with.  The image depicts 6pm CT Tuesday.

0z GFS - 6pm CT Tuesday
(Click image to see larger version.)

This is a classic winter storm for the Midwest.  The surface center of low pressure is tracking from around Monroe, Louisiana to just south of Nashville, Tennessee by Tuesday evening.  We're talking snow along and north of I-44 in Missouri and roughly along I-70 in Illinois.  This also means the rain/snow line is at play for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

At this time, I do think all forms of winter precipitation will be possible for southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  The primary nuisance will be rain, freezing rain and sleet.  There will probably be a change over to a little snow towards the end of the event.  The exact location of the rain/snow line is a little difficult to pinpoint this far out.  As you often hear meteorologists say, "The track of the storm will be extremely important." and this will be the case this time.  A change in just 40-miles will have a huge impact on what type of precipitation falls.

Right now, for places like Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and Poplar Bluff, I think rain, freezing rain and sleet will be the primary types of precipitation.  Icing could potentially be a concern, but let me say right now... This is NOT anything like the ice storm of 2009.  NO WHERE CLOSE.

TALKING SNOW

Let's talk a little snow for the Midwest.  I have gone through and looked at several computer model runs and have come up with a snow matrix.  Looking at the matrix can give you an idea of the range computer models are suggesting could happen through Wednesday night.  The data includes tonight's runs of the NAM and GFS and also Sunday morning's run of the European forecast agency's computer model as well as the 23-member SREF ensemble.

Missouri/Illinois Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

Indiana Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

Colorado Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

As you can see, there is some variation between the computer models, but I must say, they are coming in to line with each other.

For many, the storm is still out 36 to 48 hours but I'll go ahead and throw out some ball park numbers.  I hope to update my blog tomorrow evening (time permitting) with fine tuned numbers.  Although, if you have followed my blog for a while, you know that my initially numbers usually only get slightly tweaked.  Think of it as a very time course correction.  But do know, these numbers can adjust as we get closer to the event.

COLORADO: (Monday night through Wednesday afternoon)

• Colorado Springs:  3"-5"
• Lamar:  5"-9"
• Pueblo:  2"-4"
• Springfield:  4"-6"

ILLINOIS: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Mt. Vernon:  2"-5"

INDIANA: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Columbus:  4"-8"
• Indianapolis:  6"-8"
• Lafayette:  5"-9"

MISSOURI: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Cape Girardeau:  Up to 1"
• Poplar Bluff:  Up to 2"
• St. Louis:  3"-5"

FREAK-OUT-METER

COLORADO:

• Colorado Springs: 2
• Lamar: 5
• Pueblo: 2
• Springfield: 4

ILLINOIS:

• Mt. Vernon: 5

INDIANA:

• Columbus: 5
• Indianapolis: 5
• Lafayette: 5

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 4
• Poplar Bluff: 4
• St. Louis: 3

For those that don't know what my Freak Out Meter is, it is a number I give out that attempts to quantify how big of a deal the upcoming weather event will be. It is based on a 0-10 scale. Zero being the lowest, "not a deal at all", and 10 being "get all the bread, milk and eggs and lock yourself in the basement". The score is 100% subjective and it's an attempt to have a little fun.

For more frequent updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @johndissauer.

Taking Aim at the Long Range

It is always interesting and fun to see what computer models are suggesting for the long range.  I'm not talking five to eight days out, instead twenty to thirty days out.

There are a couple computer models that try to stick their arms waaaaaay out to look that far.  One of the forecast models, the European Forecast Agency's computer model, is a model that attempts to look out thirty days.  I have access to data that updates once a week.  Going forward I am going to try to take a look at the model and post observations here on "New at Dis Hour".

Here are a few observations from last week's run of the European.

• Above normal temperatures for Colorado Sept 14-20.
• Below normal temperatures for the Midwest September 12-14 and September 16-20.
• Northwest flow dominates weather pattern September 25-28 from the Rocky Mountains to the Midwest.  (Northwest flow often means there could be storms developing in the NW US and they would quickly dive to the SE.  Also often produces below normal temperatures.)
• Heat builds back in to Colorado October 1-3.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Digging through the Heat

I’ve been doing some digging in the historical weather numbers and so has some of the National Weather Service offices across the Midwest.

Interesting Weather Tidbits:

CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Cape Girardeau has officially had 1.37” of rain for the month of June.  This is 1.75” below average for the month.  For the year, Cape Girardeau is 12.72” below normal.
• In 2011, Cape Girardeau had 42.87" of rain from January 1 - June 30.  That is 31.37" more than 2012.
• The last time Cape Girardeau had an above normal month (rainfall) was December 2011.
• As of June 26, Cape Girardeau is 0.6° below average for the month of June.
• The hottest temperature in 2011 was 103° (August).
• The hottest temperature from 1960 to present is 105° (July 15, 1980, July 12, 1980, July 14, 1966, July 12, 1966, August 4, 1964).

CARBONDALE, IL (sewage plant):

• The hottest temperature from 1898 to present is 113° (August 9, 1930).

DONIPHAN, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1904 to present is 114° (August 8, 1934).

JACKSON, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (July 24, 1934).

INDIANAPOLIS:

• Indianapolis has officially recorded 0.05” of rain for June.  As of June 27, only 5 out of the last 48 days  have had measurable rain.
• Indianapolis has set a new record for longest dry period in June.  It is the longest since 1983.
• June 2012 will go in the record books as the driest month in history in Indianapolis.
• All time record high temperature for June in Indianapolis is 102°.  This record was established in 1954 and 1988.

NEW MADRID, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1963 to present is 107° (August 4, 1964).

PADUCAH:

• Paducah, Kentucky has only recorded 0.90” officially for the month of June 2012.  This is 1.78” below normal for the month.  For the year, Paducah is 12.31” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1937 to present is 108° (July 17, 1942).

POPLAR BLUFF:

• Poplar Bluff has officially recorded 1.43” of rain in June.  For the year, Poplar Bluff is 9.08” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (August 9, 1930, July 23, 1901, July 22, 1901, July 12, 1901).

ST. LOUIS:

• It has been 58 years since St. Louis has had three consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures. (1954)
• All time record high temperature for month of June in St. Louis is 105°.  This record was established in 1936 and 1952.
• Highest temperature ever recorded at St. Louis was 115° July 12, 1954 and July 14, 1954.

And He's On It

In the words of the late Indianapolis Motor Speedway public address announcer, Tom Carnegie, "And he's on it."

Yes, that is right. I am going to be back on the television giving you the latest forecast. You can watch my forecast starting this Saturday on Fox59 News at 10 on WXIN-TV in Indianapolis, Indiana.

I will be working as one of the weekend meteorologists at the station for three weeks this month.

Don't worry, if you don't live in central Indiana and can't get the station on television, they stream their newscasts live on their website - www.fox59.com. Keep in mind that Indiana is in the eastern time zone. The 10pm ET news will be on at 9pm ET in Missouri, Illinois and western Kentucky.

Currently scheduled dates I will be on Fox59 News at 10:

• Saturday, September 10
• Saturday, September 17
• Sunday, September 18
• Saturday, September 24
• Sunday, September 25

I am excited for the opportunity to work on-air for Fox59. Having grown up in central Indiana I always watched the weather people on the Indianapolis television stations. So this fulfills a goal I have had since I was 15 years old. That goal, to get on-air as a weatherman in Indianapolis.

I am not a total stranger to WXIN. During the summer of 1997 I interned in the weather department with the station's chief meteorologist, Brian Wilkes. After the internship ended they couldn't get rid of me. I stuck around and helped out in the weather department when storms would move through the state. In many ways I became an apprentice to Brian. Most of my forecasting "know how" has come from him.

After college I was looking for a weather position at a television station. Eventually, I was offered the position at KFVS-TV in Cape Girardeau, Missouri. However, there was a three month period between college and my start at KFVS. To fill the space I worked as a sports videographer for Fox59. It was a lot of fun as I was able to cover the Indianapolis Colts, the Indianapolis Indians, the NHRA Bud Shootout, PGA golf, college football and high school football.

Hope you will catch me on the tube over the next couple of weeks!

The Heat is On 7/19

Glen Frey had it right. "The Heat is On". Temperatures have been hovering in the 90°'s and 100° for the last five to six days across the country. Heat warnings, advisories and or watches are in effect for 26 counties in the United States. Right now, it appears that the heat won't be going away anytime soon.

(Click on the image to see a larger view.)

The upper-level high pressure, I mentioned a couple days ago, is slowly progressing eastward across the middle section of the country. Did I mention it was moving slow?? It is going to take several days for it to move east of the Midwest. In the mean time, temperatures will continue to flirt with the 100° mark.

Along with the heat, moisture is abundant in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the moisture isn't in the way of rain. It is mainly in the form of thick, humid air. Currently, there is a broad area of dew points in the middle to upper 70° that stretches from North Daktoa to southwest Ohio. Amazingly, the Minneapolis airport has a recorded dew point of 82°. This makes it the most humid day for Minneapolis since 1891. The heat index at 2pm CT is 110°+ from eastern Iowa through north central Illinois and in north central South Dakota.

High temperatures will continue to climb a couple of degrees each day through the weekend. The one bit of good news is the air won't get much humid than it is now. To get a look at my latest forecast for Cape Girardeau, Indianapolis, Indiana and St. Louis check out "John's Forecast".

The heat can be extremely dangerous. Many don't realize this but heat is the leading weather cause of death in the United States. Often times it isn't the first couple of days in a heat wave that deaths occur, it is usually after several days when the temperatures don't drop much at night. It is a cumulative effect. Unfortunately deaths have already occurred from the heat in the St. Louis area and when dealing with this type of heat, that number is likely to go up. Stay safe. Check on your neighbors. Check on the elderly. Stay cool!

Its Sweating Time

It is going to be a story you hear talked about on the national news for a couple of days. It is getting hot outside! Temperatures across the Midwest this afternoon are climbing to the middle 90's to 100° while the heat index climbs above the century mark.

High temperatures of the day:

• St. Louis: 100°
• Cape Girardeau*: 98°
• Marion, IL*: 97°
• Paducah*: 97°
• Louisville*: 96°
• Indianapolis*: 95°
• Columbus, IN*: 95°

*Temperatures are indicating hourly observation high temperatures. Official highs for the day will come in later this evening.

Along with the high temperatures, dew points have climbed in to middle 70's (even 80° around Louisville). This is creating heat indices (the feel like temperature) in the 110°-115° range across much of the Midwest. Remember that the dew point is a specific measure of the moisture in the air. Dew point is much more accurate at depicting how humid it is compared to the relative humidity. I know, it sounds weird but its true.

A cold front will slowly move south across the Midwest Tuesday. It should allow for some slightly cooler, less humid air to move in to central Indiana and the St. Louis metro area. However, places like southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and places further south may see a slight increase in temperatures tomorrow as the air is compressed along the front. Typically, air just along and ahead of the front will get warmer than forecast models indicate.

Caught in the Middle

We're back to weather for today. This time not about winter storms, but instead spring storms in the winter.

It appears that we might have two rounds of thunderstorms this coming week. The first round will come Monday. These shouldn't be too bad. The second round will come Tuesday evening and last through the first half of Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center, the meteorologists that issue Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches, have put the area in a "Slight Risk" of severe weather for Tuesday evening. (See image below. You can click on the image to see a larger version.)


Looking at SPC's probabilities of severe weather leads me to believe that we could see an upgrade to a moderate risk for parts of Arkansas. (See the image below.)

When you see the probabilities from the SPC, it does not mean that there is a 30% chance of severe weather. It means that there is a 30% chance of having one or more severe events occurring within 25 miles of any point inside of the area.

Right now it looks as though storms will fire up across eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and western Arkansas. They would then move to the east. They wouldn't arrive in to southeast Missouri until later Tuesday evening if not early Wednesday morning (overnight). Most likely the storms would form in to a line with the main threat being damaging winds.

Normally you would think that would be the end of the storms. That won't be the case this time. There is still a upper level low pressure that will be slowly moving to the east. It will continue to send waves (or as I sometimes call it "chunks") of energy our way. Take a look at the upper-level wind graphic below. It might be a little confusing at first, but I will describe what you are seeing.

This is a view of winds at 500mb or approximately 18,000 feet. You are seeing lots of colors on the map. The colors represent the wind speed. For instance, the brighter yellow areas represent winds 65 knots to 70 knots or 75 mph to 80 mph.

Notice the reds and even purple out over southern New Mexico/western Texas. Just to the north of those strong winds is the upper-level low pressure center. When looking at upper-level charts you can see the waves of energy spitting out of the storm. Typically, you will see storms develop on the leading edge of the upper-level winds. The map above is for 6pm CT Tuesday.

Now take a look at the chart below which is for 12pm CT Wednesday.

See how the winds start to swing around the area of low pressure? By the way, the strongest winds at this point are right over the top of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. The storms that come through early Wednesday morning will have some upper-level support to keep going, but there won't be as much energy/juice (from heating and moisture) to work with. So when the storms come through here, they should be weakening. Think about it as a marathon runner runs their race, towards the end they can keep going, but they don't have as much in the tank to go as hard as they could towards the beginning.

Since the winds are right over the top of the Heartland around noon Wednesday, the next round of afternoon thunderstorms should develop just to the east of the viewing area. The SPC concurs with that thinking. Take a look at their Day 4 outlook. (The SPC does not issue slight, moderate, or high risk outlooks beyond Day 3.)


We will have to see how this pans out as it is still a couple of days away. But right now, it appears southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee are Caught in the Middle. Which can be a good thing in these situations. That being said, it does not mean that we will not see some watches/warnings out of this, but it does not look to be as bad as it could.

This is still a couple days away. We will have to keep monitoring the situation and see if things shift east or west a little.

By the way, this shouldn't be the first you are hearing about this as I have been talking about the chance of seeing some strong "spring-like" storms around the area since Wednesday.

Shot? Who called for a shot?!?

It looks like a shot of cold air will be returning for the Heartland (Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, and Northwest Tennessee) Monday.

A quick moving system will dive south out of southern Canada. High temps will be in the upper 20's to upper 30's. However, it appears that the high temperature will be reached by late morning or early afternoon. I think temperatures will slowly fall off by mid to late afternoon.

It will be cooler, but nothing as bad as it was Thursday and Friday.

Speaking of Thursday and Friday, it was cold! Take a look at the official temps from the Cape Girardeau Regional Airport.

• Thursday: 18/5
• Friday: 18/1

That is pretty cold! Thursday goes in to the books officially as 20 degrees below normal. Friday goes in to the books as 22 degrees below normal. Interestingly, January is still above normal. Through Jan. 16, we were 1.31 degrees above normal per day. I guess it helps when we have two days of temperatures in the 60's earlier in the month.

I'm also starting to wonder if we are going to get any snow this winter. So far, nothing measurable in Cape Girardeau...