Taking Aim at the Long Range

It is always interesting and fun to see what computer models are suggesting for the long range.  I'm not talking five to eight days out, instead twenty to thirty days out.

There are a couple computer models that try to stick their arms waaaaaay out to look that far.  One of the forecast models, the European Forecast Agency's computer model, is a model that attempts to look out thirty days.  I have access to data that updates once a week.  Going forward I am going to try to take a look at the model and post observations here on "New at Dis Hour".

Here are a few observations from last week's run of the European.

• Above normal temperatures for Colorado Sept 14-20.
• Below normal temperatures for the Midwest September 12-14 and September 16-20.
• Northwest flow dominates weather pattern September 25-28 from the Rocky Mountains to the Midwest.  (Northwest flow often means there could be storms developing in the NW US and they would quickly dive to the SE.  Also often produces below normal temperatures.)
• Heat builds back in to Colorado October 1-3.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Meteorological Summer 2013 - Colorado

Meteorological Summer has come to an end and the final numbers are in.  How did Colorado Springs and Pueblo fair?  Let's take a closer look and see how the numbers break down.

*Meteorological Summer is June, July and August.  You are correct, it does not match up with calendar summer.  Meteorologists split the year in to four equal section.  Meteorological Spring is March, April, May.  Meteorological Summer is June, July, August.  Meteorological Fall is September, October, November.  Meteorological Winter is December, January, February.

Summer 2013 in Colorado Springs was a warm one.  Officially, the city finished the summer 7.4° above normal.  67% of the days (62) were above normal.  Interestingly, heavy rains also came with the warmer than normal summer.  The city finished summer 2.25" above normal.

COLORADO SPRINGS:
June:

• Temperature: +4.9°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 25
• Precipitation: -1.90"

July:

• Temperature: +0.4°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 16
• Precipitation: +1.77"

August:

• Temperature: +2.1°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 21
• Precipitation: +2.38"

Similar to Colorado Springs, Pueblo had a warm summer.  Officially, Pueblo finished Summer 2013 6.6° above normal.  Sixty-three days were above normal (68%).  The city also finished the summer above normal when it comes to precipitation.  Officially 0.13" above normal.

PUEBLO:
June:

• Temperature: +4.3°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 26
• Precipitation: -1.09"

July:

• Temperature: +0.5°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 18
• Precipitation: -0.38"

August:

• Temperature: +1.8°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 19
• Precipitation: +1.60"

Looking Back at Meteorological Fall 2012

Meteorologists break the year up to in four equal segments for spring, summer, fall and winter.  This makes it easier when looking at seasons.

(Click to see larger version.)

Meteorological Seasons:

• Spring – March 1 – May 31
• Summer – June 1 – August 31
• Fall – September 1 – November 30
• Winter – December 1 – February 28/29

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012

Most of 2012 has gone in to the books above normal, however Meteorological Fall bucked the trend.  In the Midwest, fall went in to the books below normal.

 

Below is a breakdown of the monthly temperatures for Cape Girardeau, Carbondale, Indianapolis and St. Louis.
  

CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER
Cape Girardeau	-0.6°	-1.9°	-1.9°
Carbondale	-0.6°	-2.3°	-2.4°
Indianapolis	-1.7°	-2.3°	-2.2°
St. Louis	-1.0°	-1.9°	-0.8°

Interestingly, for all four cities listed above, the last time any of the cities had three consecutive months below normal was December 2009, January 2010 and February 2010.

Below is a breakdown of the number of days each month below normal.

 

METEOROLOGICAL FALL 2012
CITY	SEPTEMBER	OCTOBER	NOVEMBER	TOTAL
Cape Girardeau	14	18	18	50 (55% of days)
Indianapolis	17	20	18	55 (60% of days)
St. Louis	15	19	18	52 (57% of days)

As you can see, the majority of days during the three months were below normal.