Digging through the Heat

I’ve been doing some digging in the historical weather numbers and so has some of the National Weather Service offices across the Midwest.

Interesting Weather Tidbits:

CAPE GIRARDEAU:

• Cape Girardeau has officially had 1.37” of rain for the month of June.  This is 1.75” below average for the month.  For the year, Cape Girardeau is 12.72” below normal.
• In 2011, Cape Girardeau had 42.87" of rain from January 1 - June 30.  That is 31.37" more than 2012.
• The last time Cape Girardeau had an above normal month (rainfall) was December 2011.
• As of June 26, Cape Girardeau is 0.6° below average for the month of June.
• The hottest temperature in 2011 was 103° (August).
• The hottest temperature from 1960 to present is 105° (July 15, 1980, July 12, 1980, July 14, 1966, July 12, 1966, August 4, 1964).

CARBONDALE, IL (sewage plant):

• The hottest temperature from 1898 to present is 113° (August 9, 1930).

DONIPHAN, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1904 to present is 114° (August 8, 1934).

JACKSON, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (July 24, 1934).

INDIANAPOLIS:

• Indianapolis has officially recorded 0.05” of rain for June.  As of June 27, only 5 out of the last 48 days  have had measurable rain.
• Indianapolis has set a new record for longest dry period in June.  It is the longest since 1983.
• June 2012 will go in the record books as the driest month in history in Indianapolis.
• All time record high temperature for June in Indianapolis is 102°.  This record was established in 1954 and 1988.

NEW MADRID, MO:

• The hottest temperature from 1963 to present is 107° (August 4, 1964).

PADUCAH:

• Paducah, Kentucky has only recorded 0.90” officially for the month of June 2012.  This is 1.78” below normal for the month.  For the year, Paducah is 12.31” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1937 to present is 108° (July 17, 1942).

POPLAR BLUFF:

• Poplar Bluff has officially recorded 1.43” of rain in June.  For the year, Poplar Bluff is 9.08” below normal.
• The hottest temperature from 1893 to present is 112° (August 9, 1930, July 23, 1901, July 22, 1901, July 12, 1901).

ST. LOUIS:

• It has been 58 years since St. Louis has had three consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures. (1954)
• All time record high temperature for month of June in St. Louis is 105°.  This record was established in 1936 and 1952.
• Highest temperature ever recorded at St. Louis was 115° July 12, 1954 and July 14, 1954.

10 Consecutive Days

There are some amazing numbers coming from the overnight runs of the computer models.  Bottom line, it’s going to be HOT and DRY for the foreseeable future.

As I mentioned yesterday, rain isn’t going to happen anytime soon.  Even if we were to get a little bit of rain, it wouldn’t come close to putting a dent in to the drought.  But since I know a lot of you want to know whether or not we’ve got rain coming, let’s get this out of the way.

To start with I took a look at rainfall numbers from two computer models.  To be honest, NOAA’s global forecast model is so far out in left field lately, it has left the stadium.  This turns me to the European forecast agency’s computer model, which has been doing very well as of late.

These numbers may be troubling and aren’t for the week of heart of you are in need of rain.

Rainfall through July 3

• Cape Girardeau:  0.00”
• Indianapolis:  0.07”
• Paducah:  0.00”
• Poplar Bluff:  0.00”
• St. Louis:  0.00”

More pressing is going to be the excessive heat.  Yesterday, I first mentioned on Twitter that the European computer model was suggesting we could see seven consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures in east/southeast Missouri.  Last night’s run has upped the ante.  It is now suggesting that we could see ten consecutive days of 100°+ temperatures beginning Thursday.  Yes, 10!  That would take us from Thursday, June 28 to Saturday, July 7 with daily high temperatures in the triple digits.

I have averaged what two computer models are suggesting for temperatures Thursday/Friday across select locations.

• Cape Girardeau: 104°/109°
• Indianapolis: 101°/97°
• Paducah: 104°/109°
• Poplar Bluff: 104°/107°
• St. Louis: 105°/106°

The one saving grace to oppressive heat is that it appears temperatures will be able to drop quite a bit overnight.  Meaning, temperatures will be able to fall off to the 50°s, 60° and 70°s.  Often times, when we have extremely high temperatures, there is never a “cooling off” period overnight as temperatures will only drop to the upper 70°s and 80°s.

I mentioned this yesterday but it is worthwhile mentioning again.  Heat is the biggest weather killer.  Hundreds die from heat each year.  Unfortunately, there has already been someone killed from the heat.  Let’s try not to have any more people die from the heat.  If you have air conditioning, turn it on.  I know many people do not want to spend the money running their air conditioning but this really could be a matter of life or death.

Doing the Wave

There are fascinating numbers coming out from the computer models this morning.  I say "fascinating" from a meteorological standpoint.

If you are needing rain, don't expect much, if any at all, over the next seven days.  Here is a break down of seven-day rainfall averages taken from two computer models for various locations across the Midwest.

• Cape Girardeau: 0.02"
• Paducah: 0.00"
• Poplar Bluff: 0.01"
• St. Louis: 0.03"

As you can see, there isn't much coming.  A lot of people have been asking me "When is it going to rain?".  The bigger question is probably "When is it going to rain to enough to help with the soil conditions?".  I would like to say "There's a chance coming.", but I don't want to give people a false sense of hope at this point.  The realistic answer is "Not anytime soon."

At this point, I think it is time for people to stop concerning themselves with the lack of rain and start thinking about the upcoming temperatures.

Later this week we are going to be moving in to a significant heat wave for the next week.  Temperatures will likely pass the 100° mark for much of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  In the short term, it appears that Friday will be the hottest day for parts of the region.  (Computer models are indicating Thursday will be hotter for Indianapolis.)  Here is a breakdown of various locations and the 2-meter temperature average between two computer models.

• Cape Girardeau: 108°
• Indianapolis: 102° (Thursday)
• Paducah: 108°
• Poplar Bluff: 106°
• St. Louis: 106°

Keep in mind, the above temperatures are straight from the computer models.  They are not the actual forecast for the specific locations.  The one thing that will slightly help is that the humidity shouldn't be "terribly bad".  Don't get me wrong, it WILL be humid and heat indices will likely approach 110°-112°.

A lot of people don't realize this, but heat is the #1 weather killer.  Heat waves have been known to kill hundreds a year across the planet.

The first day or two of high temperatures isn't usually a problem, it is the cumulative heat that can be most dangerous.  Meaning that the last several days of a heat wave that usually brings problems for people.  That being the case, be sure to check on family, friends, neighbors and loved ones, especially if they do not have air conditioning or if they do not like to run the AC.

The National Weather Service office in Paducah, KY has put together a good list of safety tips for battling the heat.

Its Sweating Time

It is going to be a story you hear talked about on the national news for a couple of days. It is getting hot outside! Temperatures across the Midwest this afternoon are climbing to the middle 90's to 100° while the heat index climbs above the century mark.

High temperatures of the day:

• St. Louis: 100°
• Cape Girardeau*: 98°
• Marion, IL*: 97°
• Paducah*: 97°
• Louisville*: 96°
• Indianapolis*: 95°
• Columbus, IN*: 95°

*Temperatures are indicating hourly observation high temperatures. Official highs for the day will come in later this evening.

Along with the high temperatures, dew points have climbed in to middle 70's (even 80° around Louisville). This is creating heat indices (the feel like temperature) in the 110°-115° range across much of the Midwest. Remember that the dew point is a specific measure of the moisture in the air. Dew point is much more accurate at depicting how humid it is compared to the relative humidity. I know, it sounds weird but its true.

A cold front will slowly move south across the Midwest Tuesday. It should allow for some slightly cooler, less humid air to move in to central Indiana and the St. Louis metro area. However, places like southeast Missouri, western Kentucky and places further south may see a slight increase in temperatures tomorrow as the air is compressed along the front. Typically, air just along and ahead of the front will get warmer than forecast models indicate.