Winter Storm for Mother's Day

Still need to get mom a gift for Mother's Day?  Well, Mother Nature may be able to help you get something useful.  If you're in eastern Colorado you could get her a shovel.  She may need it Sunday and Monday.

An area of low pressure is moving through the Gulf of Alaska off the northwest coast of the United States.  (See the satellite loop below taken Friday morning.)

Computer models project the low/energy will move southeast in to the Rocky Mountains Saturday.  Once in the mountains, a surface low is expected to develop over southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon.  As the low moves east, cold air will begin to filter in from the north/northwest.

Almost all of the data suggests moisture will begin to fall in the central mountains of Colorado Saturday.  The moisture is expected to move east and southeast over eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon.  Both medium-range computer models, the GFS and European forecast agency's model, suggest that moisture will remain in place over eastern Colorado through mid-day Monday.

Overall, the computer models are very bullish with the amount of moisture falling from this system.  Here is a look at a 27-computer model average of how much moisture will fall for locations in southeast Colorado through 6pm Monday MT.

• Colorado Springs: 0.70"
• Monument Hill: 1.03"
• La Junta: 0.48"
• Lamar: 0.37"
• Pueblo: 0.61"

Initially, moisture will likely fall as rain but in some locations it will change over to snow.  Places that get snow, could got a lot of snow.  Here is a look at the 27-computer model average of moisture that computer models project will fall as all snow through 6pm Monday MT.

• Colorado Springs: 0.52"
• Monument Hill: 0.76"
• La Junta: 0.08"
• Lamar: 0.01"
• Pueblo: 0.13"

As you can see, data is suggesting higher amounts across El Paso County and north.  This also likely suggests higher snow amounts in the higher elevations west of I-25 (Teller/Fremont counties).

Keep in mind this is still a couple days away from happening.  Computer models will get a better handle on the storm, the amount of moisture and the timing once it gets better sampling over the land.

Winter Storm Watch (in blue) Saturday night
through Monday morning.

In the meantime, the National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas west of I-25 Saturday night through Monday morning.  I'll be in throughout the weekend and will have further updates on KOAA-TV, on Twitter, and time permitting, my blog.

Starting February with Snow & Ice

There has been a lot of talk in the one to two weeks about a colossal storm heading for the Midwest this week.  A lot of the talk and hype has been extremely irresponsible, but that is a discussion for a different day.  It does appear a storm will impact the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

One of the reasons I have been relatively quiet about the storm and its potential is due to the many different solutions computer models were coming up with.  Some had it as a HUGE ice storm, others as a HUGE snow storm and most had it somewhere in between.

Patience is a virtue sometimes when it comes to weather forecasting.  Let the models battle it out for a while and then start to come up with a somewhat unified solution to what the storm could do.

This is a storm that is going to develop over far southern New Mexico, western Texas and northern Mexico.  As it matures, moisture will become plentiful as it taps in to the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.

Here is a solution the latest run of NOAA's Global Forecast model has come up with.  The image depicts 6pm CT Tuesday.

0z GFS - 6pm CT Tuesday
(Click image to see larger version.)

This is a classic winter storm for the Midwest.  The surface center of low pressure is tracking from around Monroe, Louisiana to just south of Nashville, Tennessee by Tuesday evening.  We're talking snow along and north of I-44 in Missouri and roughly along I-70 in Illinois.  This also means the rain/snow line is at play for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

At this time, I do think all forms of winter precipitation will be possible for southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  The primary nuisance will be rain, freezing rain and sleet.  There will probably be a change over to a little snow towards the end of the event.  The exact location of the rain/snow line is a little difficult to pinpoint this far out.  As you often hear meteorologists say, "The track of the storm will be extremely important." and this will be the case this time.  A change in just 40-miles will have a huge impact on what type of precipitation falls.

Right now, for places like Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and Poplar Bluff, I think rain, freezing rain and sleet will be the primary types of precipitation.  Icing could potentially be a concern, but let me say right now... This is NOT anything like the ice storm of 2009.  NO WHERE CLOSE.

TALKING SNOW

Let's talk a little snow for the Midwest.  I have gone through and looked at several computer model runs and have come up with a snow matrix.  Looking at the matrix can give you an idea of the range computer models are suggesting could happen through Wednesday night.  The data includes tonight's runs of the NAM and GFS and also Sunday morning's run of the European forecast agency's computer model as well as the 23-member SREF ensemble.

Missouri/Illinois Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

Indiana Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

Colorado Snow Matrix
(Click image to see larger version.)

As you can see, there is some variation between the computer models, but I must say, they are coming in to line with each other.

For many, the storm is still out 36 to 48 hours but I'll go ahead and throw out some ball park numbers.  I hope to update my blog tomorrow evening (time permitting) with fine tuned numbers.  Although, if you have followed my blog for a while, you know that my initially numbers usually only get slightly tweaked.  Think of it as a very time course correction.  But do know, these numbers can adjust as we get closer to the event.

COLORADO: (Monday night through Wednesday afternoon)

• Colorado Springs:  3"-5"
• Lamar:  5"-9"
• Pueblo:  2"-4"
• Springfield:  4"-6"

ILLINOIS: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Mt. Vernon:  2"-5"

INDIANA: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Columbus:  4"-8"
• Indianapolis:  6"-8"
• Lafayette:  5"-9"

MISSOURI: (Tuesday through Wednesday night)

• Cape Girardeau:  Up to 1"
• Poplar Bluff:  Up to 2"
• St. Louis:  3"-5"

FREAK-OUT-METER

COLORADO:

• Colorado Springs: 2
• Lamar: 5
• Pueblo: 2
• Springfield: 4

ILLINOIS:

• Mt. Vernon: 5

INDIANA:

• Columbus: 5
• Indianapolis: 5
• Lafayette: 5

MISSOURI:

• Cape Girardeau: 4
• Poplar Bluff: 4
• St. Louis: 3

For those that don't know what my Freak Out Meter is, it is a number I give out that attempts to quantify how big of a deal the upcoming weather event will be. It is based on a 0-10 scale. Zero being the lowest, "not a deal at all", and 10 being "get all the bread, milk and eggs and lock yourself in the basement". The score is 100% subjective and it's an attempt to have a little fun.

For more frequent updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @johndissauer.

Taking Aim at the Long Range

It is always interesting and fun to see what computer models are suggesting for the long range.  I'm not talking five to eight days out, instead twenty to thirty days out.

There are a couple computer models that try to stick their arms waaaaaay out to look that far.  One of the forecast models, the European Forecast Agency's computer model, is a model that attempts to look out thirty days.  I have access to data that updates once a week.  Going forward I am going to try to take a look at the model and post observations here on "New at Dis Hour".

Here are a few observations from last week's run of the European.

• Above normal temperatures for Colorado Sept 14-20.
• Below normal temperatures for the Midwest September 12-14 and September 16-20.
• Northwest flow dominates weather pattern September 25-28 from the Rocky Mountains to the Midwest.  (Northwest flow often means there could be storms developing in the NW US and they would quickly dive to the SE.  Also often produces below normal temperatures.)
• Heat builds back in to Colorado October 1-3.

Keep in mind, the model is just that.  A computer model.  The farther out the model looks, the higher the error rate.  The key to looking at this kind of data is to not look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.

Meteorological Summer 2013 - Colorado

Meteorological Summer has come to an end and the final numbers are in.  How did Colorado Springs and Pueblo fair?  Let's take a closer look and see how the numbers break down.

*Meteorological Summer is June, July and August.  You are correct, it does not match up with calendar summer.  Meteorologists split the year in to four equal section.  Meteorological Spring is March, April, May.  Meteorological Summer is June, July, August.  Meteorological Fall is September, October, November.  Meteorological Winter is December, January, February.

Summer 2013 in Colorado Springs was a warm one.  Officially, the city finished the summer 7.4° above normal.  67% of the days (62) were above normal.  Interestingly, heavy rains also came with the warmer than normal summer.  The city finished summer 2.25" above normal.

COLORADO SPRINGS:
June:

• Temperature: +4.9°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 25
• Precipitation: -1.90"

July:

• Temperature: +0.4°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 16
• Precipitation: +1.77"

August:

• Temperature: +2.1°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 21
• Precipitation: +2.38"

Similar to Colorado Springs, Pueblo had a warm summer.  Officially, Pueblo finished Summer 2013 6.6° above normal.  Sixty-three days were above normal (68%).  The city also finished the summer above normal when it comes to precipitation.  Officially 0.13" above normal.

PUEBLO:
June:

• Temperature: +4.3°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 26
• Precipitation: -1.09"

July:

• Temperature: +0.5°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 18
• Precipitation: -0.38"

August:

• Temperature: +1.8°
• Number of Days Above Normal (Temperature): 19
• Precipitation: +1.60"