Thursday, December 23, 2010

Frustration is Setting In

Just as the title says, frustration is setting in with me with regard to the Christmas Eve storm.

GRRRRRRRRR!!!!! Whew. I needed to get that out of my system.

We are 24 to 36 hours from the start and end of the Christmas Eve storm. Oddly, the computer models are having an incredibly difficult time locking in to a solution. When you think they are starting to hone in on something, some flip and some flop.

Tonight new data is currently streaming in. When I compare the forecast surface temperature to the real temperature over the first couple hours of the model run, it is not handling the temperatures well. That doesn't bode well for something that is 24 hours down the road.

I had planned on showing you the new run of the NAM model and what it is indicating for snow totals, but this is the model I am referring to above. Since it isn't handling the temperatures well, it makes it difficult to have any trust in its snow accumulation amounts.

There are several scenarios that could pan out. However the lack of phasing between the northern piece of the storm with the southern piece of energy (as explained in earlier posts) should keep us on the light side.

I still think we will see some snow, but I can also argue the case of us getting flurries to a dusting.

Snow could begin to fall as early as mid-afternoon Friday, but the brunt of the snow should fall starting in the evening. Snow should be over by 7am Saturday.

A note to those of you looking for new careers... If you don't like stress, don't go towards the Meteorology field. ;) haha

I am not sure how much I will be able to update tomorrow as I will be celebrating an early Christmas with my family since I am working Christmas day/evening. If I do post during the day, don't expect anything too in depth. I might be able to give a bit more deeper insights later Christmas Eve night.

11:20pm Update: The new GFS model data is in. It is showing drier air in place over the viewing area, so don't be surprised to see the radar looking like it should be snowing and nothing is hitting the ground. That is because it may be snowing 8,000 feet in the air but is getting sucked up by the dry air.

The column should be moist enough to let it reach the ground around 6:00pm to 7:00pm.

The model is showing 0.10" of liquid to work with. This model is fluffing this up to 1.1" of snow. This fits inside of my 1"-3" range. I do think some places, mainly to the south, will get nothing more than a dusting and 3" may be a little extreme. We shall see....

1 comment:

Beau Dodson said...

lol you are right about the stress - sometimes I think it is best just to forget winter forecasting - but EVERYONE seems to want to know about snow. Then they get mad if it doesn't snow. It is a no win situation (these are the same people that SAY they don't want snow). lol