Friday, December 31, 2010

Close really does count

Sorry for the late update. I've been busy today working on things at work, looking over weather data and playing out with a new version of software I use for looking at the atmosphere (Bufkit).

There still appears to be a chance for some severe thunderstorms tomorrow. It will be marginal. As I put on Facebook a little earlier tonight... "Tomorrow's chances for severe thunderstorms is still a little marginal. A few things I would like to see happening in the atmosphere aren't quite there, but its close. With winter thunderstorms sometimes close is good enough. Similar to horse shoes and hand grenades. ;)"

Here is the Day 2 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

The outlook is a little old as it is from their afternoon forecast. The new Day 1 Outlook should be coming out in the next 45 minutes. (Hopefully I will be on my way home at that point and going to bed so you can access from their website.)

They include parts of southeast Missouri and all of northeast Arkansas in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. The outlook covers from 7am Friday through 7am Saturday.

The time period I am keying in for the "main show" is between 12pm CT Friday through 9pm CT Friday. The main threat from storms will be damaging wind, however I can't rule out the chance for a tornado or two.

I'm in tomorrow working the afternoon/evening shift so keep it tuned to KFVS12 on your television for the latest. You can also follow me on Twitter (@johndissauer) and you can have severe weather watches and warnings delivered automatically via Twitter by following @kfvsweather or "like" KFVS Weather Alerts on Facebook.

11:50pm UPDATE: The new Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is out.

They have shifted the "Slight Risk" area further southeast. It now includes all of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, northeast Arkansas and parts of southern Illinois.

SPC is indicating the largest threats from the line of thunderstorms will be damaging wind and large hail. However, isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.

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