Friday, April 30, 2010

Storms Tonight Through Weekend

The weather is going to be active for the next 72 hours or more. It looks like there will be chances for severe weather and heavy rain.

First lets talk about the thing that looks pretty sure. Heavy rain. We are going to have a front that stalls out around the central United States. This is going to allow for moisture to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico. As the moisture encounters the front it will be lifted and become rain.

Here is a look at this morning's 12z (7am) run of the NAM forecast model. The below graphic shows accumulated precipitation for the 72 hour period starting this morning at 7am and ending at 7am Monday morning.

The model is showing anywhere from 1" to as much as 9" of rain across the Ohio River Valley. A few specific amounts from the NAM model. (Click the images to see a larger version.)
  • Cape Girardeau, Mo: 3.49"
  • Farmington, Mo: 1.22"
  • Paducah, Ky: 3.35"
Time to build an ark? It might not be a bad idea.

Now lets talk thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has parts of the KFVS viewing area highlighted in their severe weather outlook for today through Sunday morning.

Here is a look at SPC's Day 1 Outlook. This outlook covers from now until 7am Satuday.

Tornado Probabilities:

Hail Probabilities:

Wind Probabilities:

SPC continues the "Slight Risk" for severe weather in their Day 2 Outlook. This covers from 7am Saturday through 7am Sunday.

Reminder: KFVS12 and the Heartland StormTeam has a new way for you to be alerted to severe weather watches and warnings. If you are on Facebook, become a "fan" or "like" KFVS Weather Alerts. Watches and warnings will appear in your news feed. On Twitter you can follow @kfvsweather and watches and warnings will be tweeted. Both services are offered free of charge.


Tom Welling said...

Anytime we are in the "Slight Risk" area, we do not get severe weather. There is nothing to worry about, folks.

John Dissauer said...

Tom: We have had severe weather when there has been a "Slight Risk". The "Slight Risk" means that we are in a heightened risk area as opposed to other areas. Is it a guarantee we are going to see severe weather? No. But it is something to note and realize there is a risk.