First lets talk about the thing that looks pretty sure. Heavy rain. We are going to have a front that stalls out around the central United States. This is going to allow for moisture to stream up from the Gulf of Mexico. As the moisture encounters the front it will be lifted and become rain.
Here is a look at this morning's 12z (7am) run of the NAM forecast model. The below graphic shows accumulated precipitation for the 72 hour period starting this morning at 7am and ending at 7am Monday morning.
The model is showing anywhere from 1" to as much as 9" of rain across the Ohio River Valley. A few specific amounts from the NAM model. (Click the images to see a larger version.)
- Cape Girardeau, Mo: 3.49"
- Farmington, Mo: 1.22"
- Paducah, Ky: 3.35"
Now lets talk thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has parts of the KFVS viewing area highlighted in their severe weather outlook for today through Sunday morning.
Here is a look at SPC's Day 1 Outlook. This outlook covers from now until 7am Satuday.
SPC continues the "Slight Risk" for severe weather in their Day 2 Outlook. This covers from 7am Saturday through 7am Sunday.
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