Sunday, April 4, 2010

I Haven't Bought In Yet

I'm in a "wait and see" mode this evening. The Storm Prediction Center and a few hi-resolution computer forecast models are hinting at storms moving through the KFVS viewing area tonight. However, I'm not sold on the idea of us seeing storms overnight.

First the setup: We've got a cold front that stretches from Iowa to Oklahoma. Ahead of the front we are starting to see thunderstorms develop. In fact, a Tornado Watch is in effect until 11:00pm for the northern part of Missouri, western Illinois, and southeast Iowa.

Here is a look StormTeam Digital Doppler. The image was taken around 5:30pm CT.

The Tornado Watch is indicated in the red outline. The yellow outlines indicate Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

You can see the storms that have popped from Kansas City to Kirksville. The main threat from the storms that have developed is large hail so far.

As I mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on things for this evening. They have all of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee in a "Slight Risk" area for severe storms. The outlook is good through 7am CT Monday morning.

In the discussion from SPC, they cite a few high-resolution models that keep hinting at thunderstorm development later tonight. Let's take a look at some of the data from the model. Specifically, let's look at the "forecast radar" data some of the models put out.

Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 7:00pm CT this evening. So far the model is doing a really good job.

Here is a view of what the model says the radar will look like at 12:00am CT Monday morning.

Note how the hi-res model tries to develop a second line of thunderstorms in Arkansas. All indications are that this line would move to the east and clip southern parts of the KFVS viewing area (northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee).

The second line begins to fizzle a bit overnight and looking further in to the model data is moves all the rain north and south of the KFVS viewing area.

The big question for me is whether or not showers and thunderstorms fire further south in to Missouri this evening. I am not sold on that happening just yet.

If we do see storms move through overnight the main threat would be strong winds with some hail. Although, the Storm Prediction Center makes note that it isn't out of the question to have a tornado spin up either. Stay tuned...

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