Friday, April 23, 2010

8:00am Storm Update

It appears likely that an outbreak or two of severe weather will happen over the next 36-45 hours for parts of the country.

There is a lot of data to go over so this will be somewhat short and to the point. There is still a chance for strong to severe storms around southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas today through Saturday.

Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This covers now through 7am CT Saturday.

Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are included in the "Slight Risk" area. Northeast Arkansas and parts of the Missouri bootheel are included in the "Moderate Risk" area.

Tornado Probabilities*:

Hail Probabilities*:

Damaging Wind Probabilities*:

*Probabilities indicate the percentage that any given point in the area will see that type of weather. It doesn't mean there is a xx% chance of that weather for the entire area.

Here is a look at the severe weather outlook from SPC for Saturday. The outlook covers from 7am CT Saturday through 7am CT Sunday.

Here is a look at the overall probabilities of severe weather.

My thoughts are still pretty much what I said two posts ago (see below).
  • First, we will see the possibility of thunderstorms developing along a warm front passes through the area (southwest to northeast) today. However, most of the storms should fire once the front is north of the area. The main threat from these storms would be large hail.
  • Decaying storms will move in to the area overnight tonight/early Saturday morning (before sunrise). This line will come from a line of storms from western Missouri/northeast Akansas (if they develop). The main threat from these storms would be damaging wind.
  • Thunderstorms will "pop"/initiate over the top of us Saturday. This could start as early as late Saturday morning. As a surface low develops over the top of the KFVS viewing area, there will be a threat for tornadoes on the east side of the low. This would be mainly confined to Tennessee and Kentucky. The main threat with these storms would be large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (east of Mississippi).
Note that the biggest concentration will be to the south/southeast of the KFVS viewing area. However, we should still be on the lookout for storms firing Saturday late morning/afternoon.

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