Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #588 for eastern Missouri and south central Illinois. The watch is in effect until 8:00pm CT Sunday.


A few of the communities included in the watch include: Missouri: Chesterfield, Columbua, Farmington, O'Fallon, St. Louis, Ste. Genevieve; Illinois: Belleville, Centralia, Du Quoin, Edwardsville, Effingham, Flora and Mt. Vernon.

Thunderstorms are beginning to flare up in the watch area along a weak front. Heating of the day is allowing the atmosphere to become unstable. Combine the instability and a lifting mechanism (the front) and you can get several strong thunderstorms.

The main severe weather threat will be hail. The storms will also be capable of producing heavy downpours. A few of the thunderstorms could produce some strong winds as storms collapse.

The thunderstorms are expected to move east at 25-30 mph.

Remember that you can check out the radar and the latest warnings by using the tabs at the top of my page.

8:00am Storm Update

It appears likely that an outbreak or two of severe weather will happen over the next 36-45 hours for parts of the country.

There is a lot of data to go over so this will be somewhat short and to the point. There is still a chance for strong to severe storms around southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas today through Saturday.

Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This covers now through 7am CT Saturday.


Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois are included in the "Slight Risk" area. Northeast Arkansas and parts of the Missouri bootheel are included in the "Moderate Risk" area.

Tornado Probabilities*:


Hail Probabilities*:


Damaging Wind Probabilities*:


*Probabilities indicate the percentage that any given point in the area will see that type of weather. It doesn't mean there is a xx% chance of that weather for the entire area.

Here is a look at the severe weather outlook from SPC for Saturday. The outlook covers from 7am CT Saturday through 7am CT Sunday.


Here is a look at the overall probabilities of severe weather.


My thoughts are still pretty much what I said two posts ago (see below).

• First, we will see the possibility of thunderstorms developing along a warm front passes through the area (southwest to northeast) today. However, most of the storms should fire once the front is north of the area. The main threat from these storms would be large hail.
  

• Decaying storms will move in to the area overnight tonight/early Saturday morning (before sunrise). This line will come from a line of storms from western Missouri/northeast Akansas (if they develop). The main threat from these storms would be damaging wind.
  

• Thunderstorms will "pop"/initiate over the top of us Saturday. This could start as early as late Saturday morning. As a surface low develops over the top of the KFVS viewing area, there will be a threat for tornadoes on the east side of the low. This would be mainly confined to Tennessee and Kentucky. The main threat with these storms would be large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes (east of Mississippi).
  

Note that the biggest concentration will be to the south/southeast of the KFVS viewing area. However, we should still be on the lookout for storms firing Saturday late morning/afternoon.

Thunderstorms Sunday?

It still looks like there is a chance for thunderstorms around Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Indiana Sunday. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) still has parts of those states under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather from 7am Sunday - 7am Monday in their day 2 outlook. (See below graphic.)

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70°'s and dew points are expected to be in the lower 60°'s. So it is going to feel a bit more humid.

There could be a few scattered showers/thunderstorms around the area Sunday morning, but they should behave.

As the day progresses, temperatures/dew points will increase. A cold front will start to sweep in from the west by mid-day. Ahead of and along the cold front more wide spread thunderstorms will develop. This is most likely when the stronger to severe thunderstorms will move through the area. Once the sun sets, we will lose some of the energy as temperatures drop. So storms should quickly diminish in intensity.

It still appears that the main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. However, there is a little turning in the atmosphere, so it isn't out of the question we could see a quick spin-up of a tornado.

Another reminder... Today would be a great time to go out and purchase a NOAA Weather Radio. They can be lifesavers!